A Study On Social Risk Evaluation Index System Of China In Transition Period

According to the general rule of world economy development and society evolution, the process of the per capita GDP of a country or a region rising from $1000 to $3000 is a period of constant social risk which easily bring on social turbulence, also the critical period of "an economy easily to be destabilized, a society easily to lose order, a people easily to lose balance psychologically, and a social ethic that needs to be readjusted and reestablished". China is now in this period. Driven by the policy of opening and reform, China's society enters a comprehensive speedup period of transitioning. Following the deepening of reform, a lot of unharmonious and insecure factors accumulate in a short period of time, greatly increasing the uncertainty of China's society risk. From the "Atypical Pneumonia" incident to the bird flu incident, from the water crisis in Harbin to the large-scale conflagration in Hengyang, Hunan, a set of emergency incidents continually challenge government departments' ability to cope with risk. In this background, how to effectively evaluate social risk of China in transition period becomes a hot research topic in the field of public administration.The evaluation of social risk is an activity that applies certain scientific methods to determine and evaluate the general level of social risk. It is mainly made up of risk evaluation index system, risk evaluation method and risk evaluation model. The risk evaluation index system is the core of social risk evaluation. It serves an indispensable function of predicting, monitoring, preventing and dissolving to social risk management. The establishment of a relatively scientific and well-functioning social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period can exactly measures the overall level of China's social risk recently, and can actively reflects the changing trend of the social development, which could provides references for the government departments to design risk management policy and to conduct risk management. It has important theoretical value and practical implication.This thesis summarizes the results of previous studies, and chooses a view of social risk in transition period, and uses the "Social Combustion Theory" as its theoretical basis, and comprehensively analyzes the connotation, reasons, characteristics and types of social risk sources of China in transition period, and combines qualitative research with quantitative research to design a set of relatively scientific and well-functioning social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period, making use of Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weight of individual index. That can enhance scientific nature and validity of the evaluation index system.This thesis is divided into five parts.Part one briefly explains this study's reason and significance of choosing the topic, and delimits and argues about the basic meaning and current researching fact of social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period. It clarifies the research foundation of social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period which is Social Combustion Theory, and puts forward this study's content, main methods as well as possible fresh points.Part two analyzes the connotation, reasons and characteristics of social risk sources of China in transition period, and discloses five risk sources which recently influence China's society stabilization and development: environmental risk source, political risk source, economic risk source, social risk source and cultural risk source. To know these risk sources is the logical beginning of constructing the social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period.Part three clarifies the fundamental design principle of evaluation index system, and puts forward an essential framework of evaluation index system which takes the objective layer, rule layer, factor layer and index layer as its content. Linked with Delphi, it establishes the social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period that is made up of five kinds of twenty-two indexes on the basis of the index system essential framework. And it briefly explains scientific meaning of individual index.Part four uses Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze and count weight of individual index of social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period. That can make sure the importance degree of individual index which relatives to the whole risk evaluation objective.Part five summarizes and prospects this study's mainly research results and some problems for future research.The fresh ideas in this thesis can be displayed as following: firstly, the research foundation aspect, this thesis uses the "Social Combustion Theory" as its theoretical basis, providing the academic sustentation for constructing the social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period. Secondly, the research content aspect, started with analyzing the social risk source of China in transition period, this thesis breakthroughs previous limitation which simply research the evaluation index system, and discloses five risk sources of recently influencing China's society stabilization and development which form the logical beginning of constructing the evaluation index system; Next, it constructs a set of social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period which uses ecological environmental risk, political risk, economic risk, social risk and cultural risk as its dimensions. Thirdly, the research method aspect, combined qualitative research with quantitative research, this thesis qualitatively describe the connotation, reasons, characteristics and types of social risk sources when analyzes social risk of China recently; it integrates qualitative indexes with quantitative indexes when establishes the social risk evaluation index system of China in transition period; it makes use of Analytic Hierarchy Process to quantitatively discuss and count individual index which relatives to the whole risk evaluation objective when makes sure indexes' weight, that can enhance scientific nature and validity of evaluation index system.