Analysis Of Population Development State And Existent Problems In Shanxi Province

Objective:On the basis of five censuses in Shanxi province, the changing tendency of population quantity, quality and the type of population structure was analyzed to find out the problems in population development of Shanxi province and provide a basis for working out population and planned parenthood policies and macroscopic control of population quantity and improvement of population quality.Methods: (1) The changing tendency of population quantity and composition during 47 years (1953~2000) in Shanxi province was analyzed with descriptive method. (2) Using SAS8.2 software, the Shanxi province population abridged life tables for years 1982, 1990 and 2000 were drew up and used to calculate the life expectancy of each age group. (3) The physical quality of life index (PQLI) was used as analyzing population quality. (4) Based on the 5th census data, by SPSS11.5 software, cluster analysis on 11district was made. (5) The Spearman's rank correlation between life expectancy and environmental quality in part cities and towns of Shanxi province was analyzed.Results : (1) From all previous census results, the population has been increased continuously, but the annual average increase rate has presented decrease tendency. Except the third census in 1982, in all census years the annual average population natural increase rates exceed the national level. (2) Crude birth rate, crude death rate, natural increase rate have presented decrease tendency. The model of population development was low birth rate, low mortality rate and low growing rate in 2000. (3) Chang of age constitution appeared, population pyramid shifted gradually from increasing type to decreasing type, getting in the senile type from 2003. Compare to whole country, the total dependency ratio and dependency ratio of children below age 15 years were higher , dependency ratio of elderly people over 64 years was lower. (4) Sex ratio of total population tended to balance; while birth sex ratio is somewhat higher. (5) From 3rd to 5th census, the mortality rate tended to decline. The mortality for male was mostly higher than female. But 5th census showed the mortality for female infant was higher than male. (6) The life expectancy continuously increased, and in 2000 life expectancy was 72.67 years, but there was some difference between city and countryside and between different areas. From 3rd to 5th censuses, the life expectancy increased by 4.72 years, of them male by 4.10 and female by 5.40.In the 3 censuses; there were identical changes between life expectancy and gross domestic product (GDP) per person. The life expectancy of part of towns was shortened with the air comprehensive pollution index increase. (7) Population quality has been improved. Physical quality of life index (PQLI) rose by 11.34 ( from 76.65 in 1982 up to 87.99 in 2000 ), of which...