Situation Analysis And Trend Research Of China's Floating Population

With the continuous developments of industrialization and national economy, and loosen of household registration system, a large number of rural labor force seek jobs in cities, which lead a massive floating population. China has 670 million rural populations, so we need to know its transfer trend, and explore labor force potential; these have great significance on economic development and social stability.Basing on domestic and international research experience, and combining with national situation, we designed floating population questionnaire. This paper has analysis on their characteristics, occupational distribution, social environment and potential floating population. Structure Equation Model (SEM) is firstly used to calculate the migration willingness of floating population. We select economic conditions, living environment, social welfare and migration willingness as four latent variables, which are measured by several explicit variables in the questionnaire. After testing questionnaire data, this paper calculates standardized path coefficients of above latent variables, which are influence coefficients on floating population's migration willingness. In this process, we take full consideration of floating population's satisfaction on working and living, so this paper does satisfaction evaluation, firstly using Attribute Hierarchical Model (AHM) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. We establish index system of hierarchical structure; determine attribute weight of each index, and then do fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Evaluation results show that floating populations are satisfied with current work and life, the evaluation score is 70.17.When studying the trend of floating population, we need do accurate budget on the number of rural surplus labor, so this paper does it's short-term prediction with Cobb-Douglas (CD) Production Function. Analysis shows that the number of rural surplus labor is from 180 million to 240 million, it has decreasing trend since 2004(except 2008,2009, effected by global economic crisis). The emergence of large floating population, and rural surplus labor seek developments in cities, these phenomena accelerate urbanization process. This paper uses United Nations Method to estimate China's urbanization rate, and it will reach 73% by 2030, posing a severe challenge to our country's employment, environment and resources.