The Study Of Changing Population Age Structure's Impact On Labor Supply Of Northeast Provinces

It is generally acknowledged that the trend of the fast growing population has under effective control since 1980's due to the Birth-Control Policy in China. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped below the replacement level and maintain low. Population reproduction pattern has transferred from "High birth rate, Low mortality and High natural growth" type into "Low birth rate, Low mortality rates, Low natural growth" type and achieved the historical goal. The demographic transition laid a solid foundation for our rapid economic and social development.The fertility level of the Northeast provinces declined much sharper, some areas reached a lowest-low fertility level; the severe decline of TFR accelerated the population age structure changes and quickens the aging of population. As the natural attribute of a population, age structure is the result of past population development, but also the bedrock of future population development. The transformation of population age structure influence the future labor supply of Northeast area significantly.This paper analyses from the angles of the population age structure, population dependency ratio of the Northeast provinces, then formulated the different level of relevant index according to reasonable assume, such as women of child-bearing age total fertility rate, gender-specific life expectancy, forecast the Northeast provinces population age structure for further research which researches how current population age structure affect economic and social development, based on the forecast of population, use the Sociology, Economics, Labor Economics and other related theory to study and evaluate the impact on future Labor supply, mainly analyzed from influence on the labor force, labor quality, labor structure and draw the inclusion of population of Northeast will begin to decrease by 2020 to 2025, the proportion of 65 and older population will grow rapidly while children's will fallen, working age population will reduce in different degrees. Dependency ratio, especially the elderly dependency ratio rearing greatly, based on this conclusion, analyze how population age structure affected economic and social development indirectly, for instance, the influence on savings, consumption, social security system and the industrial structure, with the changing of the population age structure, the proportion of young children, working age population and ageing people affect on production, exchange, distribution, consumption and other process. At the same time, the growing number of elderly population increases huge pressure on social security system, heavy endowment burden shorten the "population dividend period" and the negative effect on economic and social development caused by lacking of labor force must rely on enhancing the quality of workers. Finally, considering France and Japan and other countries which experienced ageing society, combined with the actual situation of the Northeast provinces, the author puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures, on the one hand, it is crucial to ensure the quality and steady development of population, on the other hand, providing human resources and intelligence support needed by development cannot be neglected.There are a lot of research achievements about the population issue of Northeast China, this paper strives to using the latest data to reveal how population age structure affect economic and social development and make the paper bear realistic meaning, however, limited by the author's ability and material shortage, the interior relationship of population and economy, society is not studied thoroughly and needed to continue researching in future study.