The Research Of Management Assessment Of Expressway Based On Forecast And Simulation

With the social economical development, which is persistent, fast and healthy, the buildings of freeway have entered a flourish period, especially for the east-coast area, it has formed relatively advanced transportation net system. With influence of social economy and region road net, the transportation volume has increased, which makes the service lever of pre-built highway in some area tends to decrease, some highway must be broadened and rebuilt. So how to improve the forecast lever and optimization evaluation method have become a serious problem.management assessment of expressway is an important part for post assessment after its construction, the paper first introduces the status of management assessment of expressway and economical analysis at home and broad, highway running evaluation is an important part of expressway construction, and is meaningful for the improvement of project decision, design, construction and management assessment. It has become an important method for project benefit improvementThe key point of the paper is to betterment the transportation volume forecast technique, and put forward three forecast method: Gray model and regress combination forecast model, economy and volume relationship comprehensive forecast model and highway OD matrix speculation technique. Based on Vissim software ,the paper evaluates shanghai-nanjing freeway operation, analyzes the nowadays status, and compares the broaden project and non-broaden project conditions. We also put forward suggestions for post running management, which is valuable for highway running management.