The Research On Fleet Development Planning For Carrying Imported Crude Oil In China

With the sustained development of national economy, there is an increasing demand for crude oil in our country. However, the supply of crude oil can hardly meet the increasing demand. This gap can only be closed through input. The constant increase of the amount of imported crude oil brings opportunities to our crude oil imported fleets. At the same time, the shipping companies engaged in transportation of imported crude oil have gradually become aware of the importance of rational fleets deployment, improvement of the comprehensive strength of fleets and keeping the advantage position of enterprises. So it is necessary to research into the development of fleets carrying imported crude oil in our country.In this thesis, first of all, the production and the consumption of crude oil market in the world are introduced and the main factors that affect oil consumption are summarized; On the basis of complete investigation into the crude oil production and demand market in China, the author found out the contradiction between oil supply and consumption and then pointed out that the large amount of crude oil imported is inevitable; The main sea routes of crude oil imported are summed up, and the conditions of main loading and discharging ports and fleets of carrying imported crude oil in China are introduced.Secondly, according to historical statistics the prediction of the amount of imported crude oil of our country is conducted using quantitative method of advanced technology for economic prediction and the trend of imported crude oil market are summarized using qualitative analysis method together. The problem of fleet deployment is simplified into linear programming adopting linear programming technique and the fleet deployment model is established. In this model the annual total operating cost minimization is an objective function. According to the prediction of transport volume, together with the actual circumstances and the tendency of ports and routes, the development scale and structure of fleets carrying imported crude oil is analyzed and discussed by using computer.Lastly, on the basic of the initial scheme of the development of fleets carrying imported crude oil, sensitivity analysis of several schemes is achieved. The scale and direction of fleets carrying imported crude oil are put forwarded in the hope of providing reference and guidance to the shipping companies engaged in transportation of imported crude oil.