Strategic Research On Construction Of Crude Oil Pivotal Port Of North China In Dalian

With the rapid development of economy in China, China witnesses a much greater demand for crude oil. Since 1990s, Chinese GDP has been increasing by 9.7% annually and the consumption amount of crude oil 5.77% annually, while domestic supply of crude oil in the same period has been increasing only by 1.67%. In 1996, China became a net crude oil importer. In 2003, China imported 91,000,000 tons of crude oil, becoming the second largest crude oil importer in the world only inferior to U. S. A. In the next 15 years, Chinese national economy will still increase by more than 7% and it is estimated that the demand of crude oil will increase by over 10%. However, domestic output of crude oil in the same period will increase by less than 3%, which won't be able to be compared to the increasing demand. The more and more severe contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil has made it inevitable to import the crude oil in a large scale. Most of the crude oil imported by China (85%) is transported by sea. In order to reduce shipping cost, it would be better to ship the crude oil by supertanker, which makes it necessary to construct one pivotal port with large-scale crude oil wharf to complete the receiving and unloading and transshipment of crude oil. There are numerous oil refineries in northeast China and the area around Bohai Sea, the processing capacity of crude oil of which accounts for about half of the total throughout the country. In view that they have huge demand for imported crude oil and Dalian is the most important port in northeast China and even the area around Bohai Sea, the research on constructing Dalian into the pivotal port of crude oil has a practical or immediate meaning.The article conducts sufficient demonstration and analysis on the proposition based on the systematic theory, planning theory and forecasting theory and by combining model analysis with computer. Firstly, the article forecasts the import volume of crude oil in China and Dalian Port so as to determine the necessity of building the pivotal port of crude oil in Dalian through analysis on the supply and demand status quo of crude oil in China and the world with forecast model and data analysis software. Then, the author uses SWOT analysis method to analyze the opportunities and threat confronted by Dalian Port, its strength and weakness to demonstrate the feasibility of establishing the pivotal port of crude oil in Dalian and the problems may exist. Finally, it put forward suggestions and countermeasures on how to construct the pivotal port of crude oil in Dalian.