Epidemiological Analysis Of The Plague Surveillance In Qinghai Himalaya Marmot Foci From 1990 To 2009

Yersinia pestis is the agent of plague, which is a strong infectious disease, with the characteristics of spread fast and high mortality, serious harm to human health. It is the first of A Class infectious diseases in the Law of the PRC on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases. It had brought exterminate disaster to human in the past. The peoples have fundamental control the plague in the world after 1900s.Since 1980s, the human plague was bouncing back again in the worldwide, especially in the 1990s, the trend is very clearly, the human plague is one of the infections diseases which resurgence, WHO reported. In our country, the epidemic range of rodents plague is expansion constantly, the number of the sorts of infected animals is increase continually, the new plague natural foci had been found time and again, the case of the human plague is rise up year by year.Objective:This article analyzes the plague surveillance data of the 1990-2009 plague in Qinghai Himalaya Marmot natural foci; and analyzes significantly the plague surveillance data of 2001-2009 at YuShu district in Qinghai province. Explore the prevalence law of plague: time distribution, geographical distribution and population distribution in Qinghai Himalaya Marmot natural foci. The purpose is to analyze the prevalence and trends of the human plague, to analyze the relation of the rodents plague and the human plague, research natural factors and social factors leading to the occurrence of plague. To study the relation of the other influence factors and the human plague so that we can provide a theoretical basis for plague prevention and control of earthquake area, and provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment of plague.Methods: Analyze and describe the surveillance data combining with the laboratory data of human and animal plague from 1990 to 2009, describe the prevalence law of plague, and described the prevalence of human and animal plague in Yushu Tibetan autonomous prefecture from 2001 to 2009. Use EXCEL for data entry and collation, use SPSS13.0 for statistical analysis. Use Plague Management Information System (PMIS) of the author compiled to draw thematic map. The main method of statistical analysis is Multiple Linear Regression.Results:Himalaya Marmot is the main Reservoir of Qinghai Himalaya Marmot Foci, and main Victor is C.dolabris and O.silantiewi, they also are the main infection source and the media of human plague. Himalaya Marmots are living in the mountain between 2700 and 5450 m height above sea level, the area is 178184 square km of Qinghai Himalaya Marmot Foci. The prevalence of animal plague is between 0.11% and 1.75% from 1990 to 2009, there was 1.75% in 1996, and the characteristic of the animal plague overall is sustained and steady. The major regional distribution is 21 prefectures in Yushu, Nangqian, Wulan, Geermu, et al. Main features of human plague in Qinghai from 1990 to 2009, is mainly to the outbreak, both sporadic occasionally there. The incidence rate of the human plague is from 0 to 0.371/100 000 during the 20 years in Qinghai, fatality ratio is 37.33%, there are significant differences between the incidence rate of males and females (P<0.05), but case fatality ratio difference is not significant (P>0.05), the difference between the national proportions of the cases and populations is significant (P<0.05).The first case most is bubonic plague, the secondary cases most are pneumonic plague. The major regional distribution is in Hainan, Haibei, Haixi, and Yushu. The statistical analysis of the surveillance data in Yushu Himalaya Marmot Foci between 2001 and 2009 confirms that there is positive correlation among animals plague and rat bodies flea index, rat cavity flea index, flea infection rate of rat body, dog positive rate, there is no correlation between animals plague and rat density. There is no sample linear correlation between human plague and animals plague and other variables. Conclusion:The characteristic of the animal plague overall is sustained and steady of Qinghai Himalaya Marmot Foci, the major regional distribution is 21 prefectures in Yushu, Nangqian, Wulan, Geermu, et al. Mainly to the outbreak of human plague, both sporadic there. Generally susceptible to the plague of human, there are significant differences between the incidence rate of males and females, but case fatality ratio difference is not significant, the difference between the national proportions of the cases and populations is significant. There is positive correlation among animals plague and rat bodies flea index, rat cavity flea index, flea infection rate of rat body, dog positive rate, there is no correlation between animals plague and rat density. There is no sample linear correlation between human plague and animals plague and other variables. Dog as an outpost animal, that can represent the level of animal plague, we should continue use it. In order to protect the environment, low toxicity drugs of kill fleas should be use in prevention and control plague in relief and reconstruction of earthquake area.