| Background: With the extensive application of paraquat, Acute Paraquat Poisoning becomes increasingly popular and the deaths from Paraquat Poisoning are increasing year by year. Because of its strong toxic and no effective antidote, the rates of mortality are also significant at present. The research to find out the factors influencing the prognosis of Acute Paraquat Poisoning has extremely vital significance.Purpose: Through analyzing the clinical data of the 99 cases of patients with acute paraquat intoxication, it can be used to explore the prognostic risk factors of PQP, and to provide the scientific basis for clinician providing proper care and predicting the outcome accurately。Method: The clinical data of 99 acute paraquat poisoning patients was collected during the time from January 1, 2005 to December 30, 2010 in ICU of the second clinical hospital of Jilin university, These data include the information about name, age, gender, the time from the gastric lavage to poisoning, red blood cell, hemoglobin, platelet, white blood cells, creatinine, total bilirubin, CK-MB, serum creatinine, glucose, albumin, PH, PaCO2, Pa-O2,BE,Lacin in blood and clinical outcome of these patients and the APACHEII score, and the Cumulative SOFA score on every one of first three days in hospital. The patients were divided into survival group and non survival group. The difference of these indexes between the death group and the survival group was compared in single factor ANOVA; The correlations between the SOFA score,which had reach clinical significance, and clinical outcome was analyzed using Spearman correlation; The index, which has difference in 24 hours between the two group in single factor ANOVA (P<0.05),were analyzed with binary logistic regression to set up a multivariable model to predict the risk of death better. Results: There are 46 cases death and 53 cases survival in the 99 cases, and the rate of mortality is 53.54%.The differences of the amount of ingestion, WBC, GLT, total bilirubin, serum creatinine,CK-MB,PH,PaCO2,BE,Lac between the death group than in survival group reach statistical significance(P<0.05);The degree of correlation:SOFA72h>SOFA48h>SOFA0h;The result of binary logistic regression shows:PaCO2,PaO2, CK-MB and the dose of paraquat is include in the best forecast equation: the death probability P=exp LogitY / (1+expLogitY), LogitY=130.210+0.023×Log (dose of poison)- 16.329×Log (PH)-0.408×Log(PaCO2)+0.220×Log(CK-MB),the rate of accuracy was92.3% ,the sensitivity was 93.1%, the specificity was 91.7%.Conclusion: The dose of the toxicity, WBC, GLT, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, CK-MB,PH,PaCO2,BE,Lac,APACHEII score, and SOFA score can be used as the prognostic indicators, we can use them to assess the severity of a acute paraquat poisoning patient's condition; The dynamic monitoring of SOFA score have an great significance in predicting the outcome of PQP patient; The mortality risk model established with The Dose of The Toxicity, PH,PaCO2,CK-MB,with binary logistic regression can predict outcomes of the patients with acute paraquat intoxication well.
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