Assessment And Predication Of Water Environment Security For Gansu Province

As the source of life, water is essential to human beings' survival. Since the 21st Century, with the prosperity of economy and sharply growth of population, water resources could be used by human decreased seriously, the trouble of water pollution is more and more severe and the ecosystem of water environment is broken. This problem has already restricted sustainable development and eventually influenced people's health. Recently, improving water environment and assuring its sustainable development have been put forward on agenda of most countries. Study on water environment security assessment and the guaranteed measures are widespread concerned and become a hot issue.Gansu province is located in north-western China, and in the region that connect Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loess Plateau and Mongolia Plateau. It's not only has undeveloped economy but also fragile water ecological environment. With the fast urbanization, it is difficult to protect and build the water ecological environment due to the limited environment capacity. Consequently, the diverse and frail natural ecological environment type has become the limited factors for Gansu province economic and social development. However, the relative study on water environment security is almost blank in Gansu.Aiming at the severe environmental security situation in Gansu province, this study systematically summarized the evolution of water environmental security, considering the undeveloped economic level and hostile water ecological environment, based on sustainable development theory, human-environment system theory, environmental bearing capacity theory, circular economy theory and P-S-R conceptual model, the methods, principles, measures of environmental security evaluation and the selection of evaluation index have been summarized in this study. Then, an assessment system of water environmental security including 27 items in 3 different layers was established. Furthermore, the situation of water security in Gansu province from 1999 to 2008 was then evaluated. The water environmental security in Gansu was in the Poorer Level from 1999 to 2002. Begin from 2002, the level rised to the striving classes. Finally, some key factors such as unit GDP energy consumption index, land erosion treatment rate, industrial waste water discharge success rate etc. for water environmental security in Gansu province were identified.After that, the GM(1,1) model, which is based on the grey system theory, was used to predict the water environment security of Gansu province in the next decade. Thus, an steady increase in the water security was observed。The GM(1,1) is qualified by three models. The results of prediction indicate that the water environment security of Gansu is also on the rise in the following ten years.Finally, facing the existed problems, combining the current situation of water environmental security in Gansu, this study creatively pose all kinds of strategic suggestions and approaches to improve the water environmental condition of Gansu and provide scientific data for the building of the economic civilization of Gansu in the future.