The Analysis Of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics Of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome In Junan County Shandong Province

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) is a natural focus disease, and it prevails in many countries on Eurasia. China is the most HFRS prevalent country in the world, with the number of cases accounting for more than 90% of the world total. HFRS is one of the major infectious diseases which severely affect the people's health in China. It shows that Hantavirus is the main strain prevalent in China and the principal hosts are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus. At present, it has been understood the basic epidemic characteristics of HFRS and has carried out some comprehensive prevention measures, such as vaccine immunization and deratization, however, HFRS is still epidemic, even outbreaks in some regions, for example, Shandong Province, new epidemic areas appear unceasingly, and types of epidemic areas are changing. So, it is necessary to study the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution laws of types of epidemic areas of HFRS to provide theoretical evidence for the formulation of practical prevention and control measures. It is because that Junan County is one of primarily wild-rate type epidemic foci and of most prevalent regions for HFRS in Shandong Province, and it is also one of the monitoring sites for HFRS in our country. So, it is a representative of Shandong to study the spatio-temporal dynamic and evolution laws of type of epidemic area of HFRS in Junan County. The probability model of spatial distribution of disease, trend-surface model, spatial variogram of disease and spline interpolation have been applied to analyze the data about HFRS by village in Junan County from 1975 to 2004, to study spatial distribution and sptaio-temporal dynamic of HFRS, and to find out evolution...