Study On Spatial Variation And Potential Risk Areas Prediction Of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)is a rodent-borne endemic disease caused by Hantavirus,which poses increasingly serious threat to public health,especially in China.Investigating spatio-temporal patterns,transmission regularity and potential influencing factors of HFRS epidemics in typical regions can provide an important reference for local disease prevention and control departments to formulate solutions and reduce risks.In addition,predicting the high-risk areas of HFRS epidemics in the future are crucial to provide effective prevention and control measures for these regional epidemics.Shandong Province,Shaanxi Province and Hunan Province as three typical HFRS epidemic areas in China were selected in this paper that a comparative study was used as the starting point.The county-level HFRS incidence rates during 2005-2017,as well as some potential natural and socioeconomic variables,were collected and analyzed by using spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot analysis tools before geographic boundary analysis method was used to obtain the geographical divisions of HFRS,after that the Geodetector tool was used to explore the spatiotemporal relationship between the incidence rates and the potential variables.Based on this,a generalized additive model was used to predict the risk areas of HFRS outbreaks in Shandong,Shaanxi and Hunan provinces finally.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)The HFRS epidemic situation in Shandong,Shaanxi and Hunan all showed different degrees of fluctuation and had obvious seasonal characteristics.At the same time,the HFRS epidemic situation in the three provinces showed significant spatial aggregation.Among them,the HFRS epidemic situation in Shandong Province was mainly concentrated in the high-incidence areas in the mountainous and hilly areas of central Shandong and Jiaodong Plain,while the HFRS epidemic situation in Shaanxi Province was mainly concentrated in the high-incidence areas in Guanzhong Plain.What’s more,the HFRS epidemic situation in Hunan Province was mainly concentrated in the high-incidence areas in the mountainous and hilly areas of central Hunan and southern Hunan.Therefore,it is suggested that all provinces should focus on their high incidence areas of HFRS epidemic,especially during the period of high incidence of HFRS epidemic.(2)The prevalence of HFRS in Shandong,Shaanxi and Hunan provinces is closely related to natural environment and socio-economic conditions.The spatial differentiation of HFRS epidemic in Shandong Province is closely related to natural environmental factors such as precipitation,landform types and social and economic factors such as construction land.Shaanxi Province is mainly affected by natural environment factors such as topography and clay,as well as social and economic factors such as the proportion of construction land area and population density,while Hunan Province is mainly closely related to natural environment factors such as precipitation,topography and geomorphology,and social and economic factors such as land use and GDP.In addition,precipitation,geomorphological types and construction land jointly affect the spatial differentiation of HFRS epidemic in Shandong,Shaanxi and Hunan provinces,but their effects and ways of influence are different.It is suggested that relevant local departments should formulate prevention and control measures and deploy prevention and control resources in combination with local climate,landscape characteristics and social and economic conditions.(3)The potential risk areas of HFRS in Shandong Province are mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions with suitable climatic conditions(temperature between12.6℃ and 14.8℃,precipitation more than 600 mm),moderate vegetation conditions(0.56<NDVI<0.65,NDVI>0.75)and low altitude(DEM<50 m,DEM>340 m);The potential risk areas in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the central region where the plain area accounts for more than 18%,the climate conditions are suitable(the precipitation is between 660 mm and 1100 mm),the vegetation conditions are moderate(0.72<NDVI<0.81,NDVI>0.85),the urbanization level is high(the construction land area accounts for 10%～45%),and the clay content is low(the clay percentage is less than23%).However,the potential risk areas in Hunan Province are mainly distributed in the central and southeast areas with suitable climatic conditions(temperature is between15.1℃ and 18.0℃,precipitation is more than 1500 mm),moderate vegetation conditions(NDVI>0.77),and high urbanization level(construction land area accounts for 1%～18%,and population density is between 300～7500 people/KM~2).The potential risk areas of HFRS epidemic simulated and predicted in this study can provide scientific decision-making reference for relevant departments in the delineation and management of high risk areas of HFRS epidemic that need key prevention and control in the future.