The Dynamic Analysis And Preventive Strategy Of Food Poisoning In Zhejiang Province From 1992 To 2004

Food borne diseases did great harm to people's health, unsafe food made hundreds of millions of people fall ill even die, problems caused by pathogens and harmful chemical substances in food have been paid more and more attentions. Safety of food has become an important problem in the field of public health.Food poisoning is the result of eating organisms or toxins in contaminated food, and it is one kind of food borne diseases. Food poisoning not only did great harm to people's health, but also made much economic loss of society.Although there is a good report system for food poisoning in China, but the situation of food safety is still not very good, and food poisoning happens frequently. In the last few years, food poisoning became more and more common. There are 223 cases of food poisoning in which 4175 persons were poisoned and 5 died in Zhejiang province in 2004.At present, studies of food poisoning are mainly concentrating on descriptive analysis. And time series analysis and trend-surface analysis are rarely made. To analyze the food poisoning dynamically in Zhejiang province from 1992 to 2004, explore the main risk factors of food poisoning, find the key controlling point, then make out some preventive measurements of food poisoning, provide scientific evidences for governments to solve the safety of foods.Materials and methodsData of food poisoning came from 11 sanitary surveillance institutes in Zhejiang province, and demographic data came from the census of China in 1990 and 2000.We analyzed the time distribution, place distribution of food poisoning, the risk factors and contaminated foods for it. And we also made time series analysis for the 13 years food poisoning to find time distribution.To explore the region distribution of food poisoning, we made trend-surface analysis .We used the SPSS for windows 13.0 to descriptive analysis and used SAS 9.1 to trend-surface analysis.ResultsIn the last 13 years, the cases of food poisoning have been increasing year after year, especially in 2003 and 2004. The number of cases of food poisoning in 2004 is 2.59 times that of food poisoning in 1992. The incidence rate of food poisoning per year is 5.63 per 100000, and morbidity rate is 0. 30 %. The fastigium for incidence rate of food poisoning is in summer and autumn.Food poisoning occurred mainly at large social functions, with the total case number of 425 (30.04%);and food poisoning occurred at families aremost serious, the average number of cases occurred and died is 581.63, 5.25 respectively, and the morbidity rate came to 0.90%.Food poisoning caused by animality foods are 1.90 times that of vegetable foods. Microorganisms are the main risk factor for food poisoning in Zhejiang province, with the total number of 779 cases (55.05%) and 22436 persons (67.33%) poisoned. Morbidity rate of food poisoning caused by propagation is highest and it is 3.26%.Apply time series analysis to food poisoning data Of quarter degree in the last 13 years, predict food poisoning occurrence in 2005 so that we can control food poisoning occurrence, we compared real data of food poisoning in 2005 and thought ARIMA(1,1,1) x (0,1,1)4 model can predict the number of cases of food poisoning at next a quarter;ARIMA(1, 1, 2) x(0, 1, 1) 4 model can predict the number of people of food poisoning at next a quarter;ARIMA(2, 1,1) (0, 1,1) 4) model can predict the number of death of food poisoning at next three quarters.In addition, trend-surface analysis indicated that there was no obvious region distribution.ConclusionIn conclusion, food poisoning tends to occur in summer and autumn, and tends to occur at school cafeterias, large social functions and so on. And most cases of food poisoning are caused by microorganism, chemicals and propagations.Apply time series analysis, predict future food poisoning occurrence. We comparing real data,we think building up ARIMA model can predict the number of cases and people of food poisoning at next a quarter and the number of death of food poisoning at next three quarters.trend-surface analysis indicated that there was no obvious region distribution.As a result, to prevent food poisoning effectively, all these conclusions should be taken into consideration by governments in the future.