Application Of Econometric Models On The Study Of Health Resources

Objective Health resources allocation is the popular topic among the health circles all over the world. How to do well in the micro-adjustment and the macro-adjustment, how to coordinate between the development of health undertakings and the national economy, and how to achieve the balance between the supply and demand are the goals we are always working for. The objective of this paper is to probe into application of the econometrics models (including time series model and classic econometric model) for study of the health resources through forecasting the manpower, material and financial resources and also through analyzing structure to learn the relationship among development of the health resources, population and gross domestic product.Methods Part one: We collected health manpower of hospital, beds, and health expenditure in our country from 1980 to 2000. The steps of analysis were as follows: First, the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), which was a very popular model of time series, forecasted the three parts of health resources. Then the classic econometric models was set up to describe the relationship among development of health resources, population and gross domestic product, and to undertake forecast, compared statics and elasticity.Part two: Health manpower of hospital, beds, and health expenditure in Tianjin from 1980 to 2000 were forecasted by econometric models and the structure analysis.Results The mean relative errors of the ARIMA model which forecasted the three parts of the health resources in our country were 0.0053, 0.0046, 0.0412 respectively. The mean relative errors of the classic econometric model were 0.019, 0.012, 0.015 respectively.The mean relative errors, which forecasted the three parts of the healthresources in Tianjin, were 0.0053, 0.0046 and 0.0412 respectively through the ARIMA model forecasting. The mean relative errors were 0.019, 0.012 and 0.015 respectively through the classic econometric model forecasting. In addition, elasticity of public health expenditure and development of GDP was 0.24 in our country and 0.46 in Tianjin.Health manpower of hospital and beds from 2001 to 2002 were forecasted out of sample size. The mean relative errors, which forecasted health manpower of hospital and beds from 2001 to 2002 in our country, were 0. 034, 0. 012 and 0. 067, 0. 031 respectively through the ARIMA model forecasting. And the mean relative errors, which forecasted the two aspects of health resources in 2001, were 0. 013, 0. 029 respectively through the classic econometric model forecasting. The mean relative errors, which forecasted health manpower of hospital and beds from 2001 to 2002 in Tianjin, were 0.015,0.024 and 0.043,0.004 respectively through the ARIMA model forecasting. And the mean relative errors, which forecasted the two aspects of health resources, were 0.094,0.001 and 0. 046, 0. 024 respectively through the classic econometric model forecasting. Conclusion In this study, we chose two representative econometric models-the ARIMA model and the classic econometric model-to forecast the three parts of health resources, and achieved satisfied results. The coefficient of elasticity indicated that the change of elasticity of Tianjin was higher than that of our country.In a word, the application of econometric models for the study of health resources showed good forecasting precision. And the time series model showed good forecasting precision .We can learn the relationship among development of health resources, population and economy through the classic econometric model. The method also directs the development of health resources and benefits thecoordination between the health resources and the development of society.