The Effect Of Climate Change On Chinese Viticulture

Based on climatic data collected from 504 weather stations belonging to the Climatic Information Centre of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 1959 to 2003, daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and daily moisture capacity were used to calculate frost free period (FFP), first frost day (FFD)and last frost day (LFD), growing season length (GSL), effective accumulated temperature (∑ET), annual extreme temperature, dryness index (DI) during the last 45 years. Based on these indexes, the effect of climate change was analyzed using Arcgis software. Some suggestions were also made about how to respond to the effects of climate change.Annual average temperature, annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature increased during the last 45 years, The 1960s was a period of high temperature (higher than Inner Mongolia in the 1970s), and these temperature indexes changed most fiercely in 1990s and reached their maximum values. The distribution of precipitation in China showing the tendency of more precipitation in south fewer in north and more in east fewer in west, but there were no distinct clues of variation during the last 40 years. Evapotranspiration (ETO) varied in 10 year cycles, increased in the 1970s and the 1990s but declined in 1960s and 1980s. The variation of moisture index of China was also studied. The result showed us it's fluctuated in 10 years cycles.In recent 45 years, especially after the 1980s, the FFP increased significantly. The growing season was lengthened, the LFD was advanced, the probability suffered from spring frost injury decreased, the FFD was delayed, which could result in the accumulation of nutrients in shoots and furthermore improve the capacity of the vines to live through winter. The variations of LFD were larger than those of FFD. The bury line moved northwards. The areas where the vines need to be buried shrank. FFP in eastern northwest china, western northwest china, northern china and northeast china, where hold most of Chinese wine regions, increased 9d, 8.5d, 10d and 13d respectively. This could change the suitability of Chinese viticulture. The variation of frost indexes was influenced by the steppe-terrain of China, in the same step, the area suffered from frost indexes change was wider, but in the areas where the step rose, the change of those frost indexes were more significant. Based on the changes in FFP during the last 45years, a forecast for FFP in the next 50 years was made. The results showed that most areas of China will be viticulturable, except for a handful of areas in northern China.3. The average growing season temperature and maximum growing season temperature were higher in the 1960s, compared to the 1970s in some area. After dropping in the 1970s, they increased gradually and reached their highest point in the 1990s. At the same time, the growing season minimum temperature increased steadily and significantly from the 1960s to the 1990s. The study on extreme temperatures showed that areas hotter than 30℃were wildly distributed in the 1960s, shank in the 1970s, and reached its lowest point in the 1980s, but it quickly reached its highest point as temperature rose in the 1990s. Before the 1990s the occurrence temperature hotter than 35℃was rare except in Xingjiang Province, the Former Huanhe river Region, Wuhai in Inner Mongolia and Jiuquan in Gansu Province, but those 35℃events appeared in 1990s in many grape-growing regions.The GSL of China consistently increased during the last 45 years, GSL in eastern northwest china, western northwest china, northern china and northeast china increased 7.4d, 4.3d, 6.6d and 5.4d respectively. The GSL increased most significantly in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s, the variation of 10℃based∑ET in growing season was not significant, similar to the other indexes researched in this paper, the 1990s was the most variable decade for 10℃based∑ET,∑ET increased 156.1℃, 167.9℃, 135.2℃and 97.2℃respectively in the northeast china, eastern northwest china, northeast china and western northwest china.Compared to FFP, the variation of DI was not significant, and with fluctuation of 10 years. The viticultable areas of China constantly enlarged northwards, and compared with DI, FFP played a main role in the enlargement.Climate change is a double blade sword for Chinese viticulture. As temperature increases, some of the varieties currently planted would no longer suitable for use. This is disadvantageous to the sustainable development of Chinese viticulture. As temperature increass, areas suitable for viticulture in northern China will expand. There would be many potential high quality wine regions among them, which has great potential for improving Chinese wine quality and optimizing wine industry layout. As the climate changes, the phenological phase of grapevine and bury line also change. The vineyards should note the changes in these two indexes and change their annual vineyard program to decrease the cost of grapevine production. Because most high quality wines are producted in the northern viticulturable point, the northward movements of viticulturable area provides the opportunity to choose high quality wine regions, with full consideration of soil type and water supply.