The Study On Carrying Capacity And Sustainable Utilization Of Water Resource In Jining

Water, one of the irreplaceable resources for human's survival and development, is also a kind of renewable resource, but to some region and time slices, it is finite as well. With the development of economy, to our human being, the requirement for water resource is increasing constantly. Under this circumstances , it becomes a widespread concerned problem about how to realize coordinate development of economy,society and ecological environment in a region with finite water resource, while this is also the research content of water resource carrying capacity theory.Jining, which lies in the southwest of Shandong province, is an important base for coal exploration, together with farm and sideline products. Owing to the fast development of industry and agriculture, together with the abundant consumption and serious pollution of water resource, Jining's shortage of water resource has already been under the critical circumstances. Only by reasonable exploitation and good conservation, can Jining deal with the coming severe problems of water shortage on quality and quantity. According to this, this paper gives research on Jining's water resource carrying capacity and sustainable utilization.Firstly, this paper reviewed the research results about water resource carrying capacity and proposes its conception which means the largest carrying scale or capacity of water resource if a region can realize the coordinate development of its ecology system and society-economy system under a certain period.In the second part, according to the formation and transition theory of water resource,the water resource systems of Jining are particular calculated. By calculating statistics about total volume and utilizable volume of both surface water and groundwater resource in different frequencies, the total volume and utilizable volume of water resource are educed. The results came out to be that the average total volume of water resource in Jining was 53.9×108m~3, and the average utilizable volume was 32.2×108m~3.The third part is the main body of this paper. In this part, combined with the utilization reality of water resource in Jining and exerting the ideology of system dynamics,the system dynamics model of water resource in Jining is established. On the basis effectiveness of this model and the sensitivity tests of different parameter, economy-developmental,ecology-friendly and coordinate-progressive strategies are given about the utilization of water resource in Jining. By systematically simulating of these three strategies, the coordinate-progressive strategy, combining the coordinate development of economy,society and ecology, is the best choice. In the forth part of this paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, fuzzy comprehensive estimation is used to evaluate sustainable utilization of water resource according to the above three strategies, and the superiority of the coordinate-progressive strategy is certified again.Following the above research, suggestions on promotion of the sustainable utilization of water resource in Jining are given as follows: implementing water drawing projects positively, increasing the investment of surface water supplication projects, instructing water saving projects, enlarging sewage reuse degree, controlling the speed of economy development reasonably and paying attention to ecology protection.