The Analysis Of Carrying Capacity And Optimized Allocation Of Baotou's Water Resource

On the basis of understanding the concept and theory of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and under the guide of view of Sustainable Development and at the same time in accordance with the present situation of water resource's supply and demand, I use the system dynamics (SD) model to analyze and forecast the water resource 's exploiting condition of Baotou city. View of sustainable development is a completely new and original development view, which demands that we take population, natural resources, ecological environment, social and economic conditions into consideration as a dynamic complicated system which has inherent connection. System Dynamics is just the tool which can be effectively understood, simulated and experimented and with which we research and deal with this kind of dynamic and complicated system.This thesis 's data are based on water resource's utilization in 2000 of Baotou city. Through observing and studying the supply and demand system of water resources and it's utilization and it's affected factors' interrelation and included feedback informations. I establish Baotou water resource carrying capacity SD model that is based on water resource's optimized allocation and combining population and economic' s development.then through the operation and solution of the model we can draw a conclusion that is the situation of Baotou 's water resources utilization, it's carrying capacity of water resource and it's changing direction in the next 20 years. Through analyzing the forecasted outcome and aiming at the current and prospective the probably existent questions we bring forward optimized allocation programme, policies and suggestions of the water resources' sustainable utilization of the city Baotou.