Study On Probability Model Of Household Classification And Forecasting Traffic Generation Based On Trip Characteristics Of Household

The development of economy has increase the congestion on road networks. To insure the congestion is not going to be worse, which need to enhance the accuracy of traffic demand forecast. The accuracy of trip generation will directly affect the result of traffic demand forecast and the trip characteristic of household will impacts on the trip generation. Therefore, it is become important to study the trip characteristic of household.In this technical note we have analyze the trip characteristic of household which include the income of household, the vehicle owner of household, the structure of household, using cluster analytical method, cross classification method, probability theory to study the classification probability model of household based on trip characteristics of household.Firstly, the research based on the household swatch date which from the actual survey of Jinzhou. The classify index of household swatch are the income of household, the vehicle ownership of household, the structure of household, the average trip number of household per day per person, which used to clean up and elementary analyze the data that compartmentalize the types of household into 30 types. Based on the original classify of the household types, the text carries on hierachical clustering analyze by apply the software of SPSS which choice the index variable of cluster analyze, the income of household, the vehicle ownership of household, the structure of household, the average trip number of household per day per person to analyze the 30 kinds of household which come into being 6 sort of families, which used to forecast the trip generation. That can reduce the kinds of household category and the workload of research the different types of household travel characteristics.Secondly, towards the household category which is the result of hierachical cluster analyze, research the income distribution of household, the vehicle ownership distribution of household and the structure distribution of household of every kind of household, and to demarcate the distribution of household model of them. Base on the distribution model of three traffic characteristics to constitute the six types of classification probability model of household. The classification probability model of household can provide the element datum of traffic trip generation forecast which use cross classification method.Finally, expound the way of the research method and model of trip production, use cross classification method and the classification probability model of household to forecast the trip production.