Study On Methods For Forecasting City Residents Trip Generation

The definition of city residents trip production forecasting is to estimate general travel demand that traffic zones will probably produce under some certain conditions such as the socio-economic developing level, characteristics of land use and traffic network serving level. As the basis of transportation planning and primary process in travel demand forecasting, the precision of forecasting would directly impact on rationality and science level about transportation highway constructing planning, even on economic development and improvement of people's living level in the future. At current, trip generation forecasting does not completely considerate all factors which influence trip production. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further studies on trip generation forecasting.Neither regression analysis nor cross-classification analysis thoroughly demonstrates the relevant relationship between trip generation and accessibility to traffic zones. This thesis mainly studies on city resident trip production including trip generation and trip attraction. To begin with, the characteristics and influence factors of city resident trips are analyzed. On the basis of correlation between them, the model is established to forecast trip generation. Furthermore, after studying interactional relationship between land use and transportation and considering interactive relation between land use which is one of trips influence factors and city resident trips, it also attempts to establish forecasting models that show close relation between trip generation and the accessibility to zones. Based on the above content, the forecasting methods and models are explicitly expounded with five chapters in the process of study. The main idea in every chapter is listed as followed.Chapter one introduces the purpose and meaning about this study, current situations in domestic and overseas. On this basis, study thoughts and forecasting methods are explicit.In chapter two, characteristics of travel are expatiated. It also analyzes the main factors, which influence trips of city residents, introduces traditional methods and models to forecast trip generation and trip attraction. This supplies basic theory for the following study on variable selecting. Chapter three introduces forecasting models and the premise to use them. Thoroughly comparing the advantages and disadvantages of forecasting models, the accessibility is taken into account, adding variable ＝to socio-economic variables in traffic zones and then produces trip generation forecasting model This model is validated. It also simply introduces Gray Model that is prepared for next population forecast.In chapter four, the core of this thesis, forecasting models is built after setting forth interactional relationship between land use and trips of city residents. Since different land use in every zone existing diversity of trip generation, this differentiate is embodied in the process of establishing model. According to the process of deducing, the formula, which embodies interactional relationship between land use and transportation, is gained. Furthermore, this model is validated, and then trip attraction forecasting model used extensively in domestic at present is chosen which is closely related to land use. Thus, trip generation and trip attraction can be computed respectively.Chapter five summarizes study content, conclusion and some problems that need to study further.