| Ancient building seismic risk is the endangerment brought by earthquake disasters to ancient building and economics in some domains during the future,which reflects the possible damage to ancient building. In general, Probability Seismic Risk Analysis (PSHA) includes three aspects, that is , Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) ,Probability Seismic Fragility Analysis (PSFA) and Seismic Loss Assessment(SLA). The main contents of this thesis are as follows.(1)Investigating and collecting the research current situation on timber-framed ancient architecture in the field of earthquake disaster prevention, analyzing the problems of cultural heritage of earthquake disaster prevention, provide the basic data and information for establishment of ancient timber-framed buildings seismic risk assessment method.(2) Investigating, collecting and analyzing the damage cases of China's timber-framed ancient architecture in the earthquakes in history, extracting the characteristic parameters of affecting the number, size, degree of the effects of disasters, provide basic data for establishing characteristics of earthquake disasters of ancient timber-framed building from the macro point of view.(3) Analyze the constituent elements of seismic risk of timber-framed ancient architecture and riskiness of disaster-causing factors, establish seismic risk evaluation index system of timber-framed ancient architecture.(4) The seismic vulnerability analysis method of structures is studied. In this paper, a two-parameter model of earthquake damage is adopted. for 5 kinds of damage state of the structure ,adopt the seismic damage probability matrix that Lili Xie put forward, calculating the probability of structural damage under the action of earthquakes of various magnitudes.(5) The Probabilistic seismic risk analysis method of structures is studied. The PSRA of structures is divided into three Parts in this thesis,which include PSHA,PSFA and SLA. In the seismic vulnerability analysis, Propose the determination ways of discrete analysis method of seismic vulnerability and seismic vulnerability matrix. Combining the discrete seismic vulnerability analysis with seismic vulnerability matrix, Propose Probabilistic damage analysis method of structures. The Probabilistic seismic damage analysis is integrated with the seismic loss assessment,the Probabilistic economic loss risk curves are then established. Preliminarily seismic risk is divided into five grades by partition method, establish standards for risk rating. |