Optimal Allocation And Evaluation Model Of Water Resources Based On Uncertainty Theory For Baoji City

Due to the relative scarcity of water resources in northern city of China, coupled with the long-term irrational utilization, there has been such as:low utilization efficiency of water resource, Imbalance between development and utilization of water resource, excessive exploitation of groundwater, serious pollution and waste of water resources, the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources gets more aculeate, serious water supply and demand imbalances and other issues. Water resource is the indispensable natural resources to human beings and has become one of the main limiting factors to sustainable development of social economy in BaoJi city. The development of rational water utilization and protection programs in order to achieve sustainable development of cities has become a problem urgent to be solved.Water supply sources in Baoji city are mainly surface water, groundwater, sewage treatment and reuse of wastewater as well as water transferred from outside the basin and so on, with multiple sources of water supply features. Due to hydrological, meteorological and engineering construction factors, different water source conditions with different variation law, different costs and benefits of development and utilization, also different effects on the ecological environment. The complexity and uncertainty exist in the development and utilization of water resources. Application the uncertainty theory to find a rational development and utilization programs of water resources. In order to maximize the benefit of the whole system, solve the contradiction between water supply and demand, and alleviate the water shortage issues through joint optimization dispatching of multi-source multi-user of water system.In this paper, based on the status quo of water resources in Baoji city, conducted the following research.(1) By investigating and evaluating the present situation of Baoji water resources, we have analyzed the utilization and exploitation of the water resources and predicted the water consumption of agriculture, life, industry and ecological environment in year 2015 and 2020 with the development of society. By analyzing the Baoji Municipal water supply planning and historical data, obtained the water supply ranges under the different guaranteed rate.(2) After analyzing and generalizing the water resources system of BaoJi city, five different models has been established. Two models are based on linear programming theory and solved with modified simplex algorithm. Considering the uncertainty and risk in the system, the other models are based on fuzzy programming, dependent chance goal programming, and solved with fuzzy theory and with hybrid intelligent algorithm combined with stochastic, GA and ANN. Using the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, TOPSIS, AHP methods establish evaluation models to carry out the program optimization. This study concluded that, by considering the uncertainty in water resources system, and established the water resources optimal allocation programs are superior to the traditional program outcomes, the former can better address the relationship between water supply and consumption, improving the whole benefit of water system, and better protect the ecological environment in Baoji city. The conclusions in this paper have a significant practical meaning to the sustainable and coordinated development of BaoJi city.