Research On Dam-Break Probability Analysis Method For Dangerous Reservoir

China is a country which has one of the largest number of dams in the world, the dangerous reservoirs of china are also locate forefront in the world, the existence of these dangerous reservoir dam threatening people's lives and property of downstream, restricting the sustainable development of China's economic and social seriously . How to manage these dangerous reservoir dam effectively, reducing the risk of dam burst accident, has become one of the current problems to be solved in the dam safety management.To introduce the popular risk management technique of international may well be a good way. through the analysis of the dam-break risk; on one hand, we can identify the potential accident risk factors for the dam and estimate the risk probability and consequences of the dam burst, thereby reducing or elimination of dam-break risk;on the other hand, the risk size of dam and the "priorities" sort of the dangerous reservoir dam can be arrangemented,to use funds rationally and to allocate it optimally and to improve the level of dam safety management and decision-making efficiency are all have some significance.For this reason, Summing up and referencing the dam risk analysis theory with home and abroad, do a preliminary study of the probability estimation method with dangerous dams in this paper, mainly done in the following areas:(1) Overview of the dam risk researchs with domestic and foreign, summed up the main reasons of dam-break with home and abroad, Dam-break rank of evaluation model with dangerous reservoir is mentioned,so the overall security state of dam can be evaluated comprehensively with this model.(2) The common crash Patterns of the dam are summarized,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy theory was introduced, combined with experts judgment views ,the crash Patterns of dangerous reservoir are filtrated,and receive the main Patterns of dam-break which are the greatest threat to the dam safety,and then infer the crash paths with corresponding burst mode. (3) Several common dam-break probability estimation methods are discussed, Risk-rate estimation method which is based on fuzzy theory was introduced, combined with the judgement views of experts, the probability of accident links can be calculated, and we can receive the probability of the dam-break eventually.(4) Put the You Luo Kou reservoir in Jiangxi province as an engineering instance, the theories and methods of this paper are to be analyzed and tested, on this basis, to summarize the risk analysis steps of single dam and the risk size arrangement mothed of group dams, the research results can be referenced for the relevant management and decision-making departments initially.