Railway Transport Safety Pre-warning Theory Research Based On Reliability

Railway is the main artery of national economy, the important infrastructure construction of country, and the popular mode of public transport. Safety has always been the subject of railway transport, while the reliability of the railway transport system is the premise of safety. If some aspects of the railway transport system failure, it possibly causes train's delay even the personnel casualty accident, and brings about the adverse consequences to national economy's development and people's personal safety and property.In this paper, we take railway transport system which is complex giant system as our study object, and explore the system's structure, function and coupling relations, then obtain the system and subsystem's reliable concept and computational method, propose railway transport system's reliability computation model, and establish railway transport safety pre-warning theory which based on reliability analysis.The author by analyzing the railway transport system's composition structure and operating methods,carried on idealized processing to the railway transport system,identified person subsystem, machines subsystem and environment subsystem, the three subsystems are relatively independent of each other. General using system reliability theory, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and related professional knowledge of railway to analyze various factors in the subsystems, which are affecting the reliability of the system,and established person, machine and environment subsystem Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation model and calculation method. Studied the reliability relations between the person subsystem, machines subsystem and environment subsystem, and established the railway transport system Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation model, at last set up the railway transport safety pre-warning model. Finally, the author proposed reasonable and the superior reliable management and design proposal for the Rail Department to implement reliability management and realize railway transport system's reliability growth.This paper based on the reliable theory, analyzed the reliability and security of railway transport system, eventually formed Railway transport safety pre-warning theory which based on reliability, it can help Rail Department of our country to enhance the reliability and security of their management and operation.