Study On The Model In The Passenger Flow Distribution Forecast Of Inner-City Rail Transit With Its Application

With economic development and increasingly close links between cities, the contradiction between supply and demand of transportation is continue to intensify, so that, with the advantages of large-volume, high transport efficiency, low energy consumption, less environmental pollution, rail transit has become one of the most effective solutions of the inter-city traffic problems. While the passenger flow assignment forecast is a very significant preparatory stage before the planning, construction and running-management of inter-city rail transit, therefore, it has an actual significance to research for a kind of forecast method having reliability, high-effect and operatability.Having analyzed the characteristics of inter-city rail transit and its passengers, which are different from other transportation modes, this paper analyzed and compare the advantages, disadvantages and application conditions of various types of passenger flow distribution forecasting models, and chose a suitable one to be applied to forecast the passenger flow assignment of inter-city rail transit, based on the requirements of research purposes and prediction accuracy and the difficulty of access to basic data.After analyzed the factors that influence the share volume of passengers who use rail transit and put forward a corresponding method through calculation and overall adjustment for predicting the volume of inter-city rail transit passengers with their own characteristics to provide a reasonable basic data. And then, this paper proposed calculation models of the integrated impedances of paths and nodes, and put forward an improved shortest path algorithm and a screening method of effective path for the static multiple route method using in forecasting the passenger flow assignment of inter-city rail transit.Based on the investigation results of the subject called inter-city rail transit planning of Pearl River delta area, this article used the static multiple route method to forecast the distribution of passenger flow, and evaluated the calculation results, so that to verify the feasibility and rationality of the methods above.