Research On The Passenger Transport Programs Of The Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing Railway

Along with the rapid increase economy of the Chengdu-Chongqing zone, people's exchange becomes more and more frequent. Now in the turn of transport capacity, both the Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing railway and Chengdu-Chongqing highway can not meet the rapid passenger growth, the railway department has been reforming on the Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing railway, and planning to construct a inter-city railway between Chengdu and Chongqing. Meanwhile, a new highway between Chengdu and Chongqing is planed. So after reforming of the Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing railway and before completing the construction of inter-city railway between Chengdu and Chongqing, under the new competitive environment, what operational program will be taken by the railway, what are the steps, principles and basis to develop the program, what method will be taken to do the ultimate choosing, are the focuses of this paper.This paper is from the status of various modes of transport in the inter-city channel between Chengdu and Chongqing, as well as their future planning to analysis the characteristic of the railway passenger flow between Chengdu and Chongqing, including rail passenger flow analysis, direct and indirect factors which impact on inter-city railway passenger flow, then forecast the total transport in the Chengdu-Chongqing-channel, as well as the market share which based on the main factors which directly affect the passenger flow, then calculate the railway passenger flow between Chengdu and Chongqing. On this basis, develop operational programs of the Chengdu-Suining-Chongqing railway, including the premise of developing operational programs, specific contents of operational programs and the methods and strategies to do this research and so on, ultimately, two options are given for the choosing. Finally, using the principle of AHP to establish index system and analyzes the impact of these programs to the indicator layer, then use the model to calculate the ultimate weight to goal of the program, thereby to make a decision.During the study of this course, this paper uses the gray prediction method and Analytic Hierarchy Process to do research. On the basis, then process data, calculate weight and analysis the results. When calculating the rail market share, this paper fully introduces the system of correlation analysis, adds the factors which impact the market share, making the forecast more accurate to provide scientific basis for programming.