Study On Urban Water Consumption Forecasting In Kunming

With the population growth and economic development rapidly, many cities in China are in troubled on short in water. The growing imbalance between supply and demand of water resources is severe day by day, urban water consumption forecasting has become one of the important issues of urban water resources planning and its management. The capital of Yunnan Province, Kunming is not only the political and cultural along which economic center, but also the most densely populated site and the most priority economic areas. According to relevant statistical data, Kunming is seriously short of water, its occupancy volume of annual per capita water in Kunming is 302m~3, which is only 1/9 of the Sonic national per capita water share and Kunming is one of the 14 domestic areas which are seriously lack of water. As national economy and the society develop rapidly, population expanse quicken and the urban size enlarge constantly, prominent adverse change has taken place in utilizing & development as well as protecting water resource of Kunming city, the out of proportion relationship between supply and demand of water resource become quickness. Local authority's statistical data show that total water yield of entering Dianchi lake and entire rivers acceptant falls sharply in recent years, besides, drainage basin water quality fallen, especially, Dianchi lake is serious in eutrophication not only lead to water purvey capacity lowered also make the local natural and ecological & existent environment deteriorate. Water pollution and water resource shortage have already restricted the Kunming's social and economic sustainable development seriously.Urban water consumption forecast is one of the basis works for urban water resources planning and the management, and is also the important part of the water supply system optimization dispatch management. Regional or basin water forecast is helpful for the autochthonic government or the competent authorities to provide future water resources needed for Kunming's socio-economic development, and benefit of dealing with possible water crisis in future, equally, it will help to predicted social and economic planning chief departments of water to systematically guidance and carrying out optimal management. At present carries on the system forecast to the Kunming city water consumption to be few, this article on the research has great theoretical and practical significance on planning to guide the development and utilization of water resources in Kunming and promote sustainable development ability of Kunming city. The main research contents of the thesis:1) Studying the water resource distribution situation of Kunming first, describing the development and utilization current predicament of the surface water and groundwater resources emphatically, analyzing each existing problem in the course of development and utilize the water resources. Introduce a subject for research of concepts such as water requirement of the ecological environment and virtual water, etc. the first time. Studying at different levels related to determination year in Kunming city water resources, such as production (mainly in industrial and agricultural) water, eco-environmental water and virtual water; confirm the concept of the suitable urban water requirement of ecological environment of Kunming and computing technology; probe into intension and position and function in the water resource sustainable development of Kunming of the virtual water.2) Discussing the existing problems in the methods of water consumption forecasting in Kunming, prove a rationality predicts method, the time series method, establishing the time series forecasting mathematical model of the water consumption (industrial, agricultural and domestic water), eco-environmental water demand and virtual water(including industrial, agricultural and domestic water) with AR mathematical forecast model. Attesting to nature water consumption forecasting be fit for the linear trend model and virtual water forecasting be propitious to the conics trends model, and the total water consumption forecasting in Kunming beseeming to cubic curve, and bearing out these forecasting result is close to reality state.3) Through carrying on the analysis of equilibrium of supply and demand to the usable water amount and necessary entity's water yield in Kunming, we can get the conclusion that Kunming city usable water amount which can only solve Industrial and agricultural and resident subsistence water requires, but not be satisfied with the urban basic water requirement of ecological environment, to close the enormous gap of environmental water demand, we can farther develop water resource such as the Zhangjiu-river , the river of Niulanjiang and the middle regions of the Yunnan Province , and increasing the total amount of virtual water in Kunming, ulteriorly. The above steps are proved the necessity to utilize the water resource reasonability, and environment protection, control water pollution and solving the long-term shortage of water resource in Kunming.