The Study About Traffic Demand Forcasts Based On The Urban-Rural Integration

Communist Party of China made concrete arrangements for the development of urban-rural areas, proposed integration development of the urban-rural areas, and shorten the time and space distance between urban-areas in the third Plenary Session of the 17th Communist Party of China Central Committee. Transport infrastructure is an important link between rural and urban areas. The transport system of scientific development is the key to shorten time and space distance between urban-rural areas, therefore it is important to carry out traffic demand in the urban-rural integration areas. While there is a perfect system of Chinese central city traffic demand forecasts, the theoretical system of the urban-rural integration areas is developing. So it is extremely urgent to carry out traffic demand forecasts based on the urban and rural areas.The main subjects of this paper are the small towns which near the Central Cities. According to the established main subjects, this paper summarizes the difference of trip-characteristics between the urban area and the urban-rural integration area by analyzing the trip-characteristics of the residents in the urban-rural area.On the strength of the trip-characteristics of the subjects, the paper puts forward the division principle of the traffic cell which based on the urban and rural areas and constructs the Trip Productions and Trip Attractions model.According to the main factor of the traffic distribution, the thesis constructs a new traffic distribution model which based on the urban and rural areas and presents concrete steps to amend model.At last, the model is constructed to forecast traffic demand of Pixie in the thesis. In the example, the paper makes use of the Trip Productions model and Trip Attractions model which based on the urban-rural integrations forecasts the Trip Productions and Trip Attractions of Pixie.Via the socio-economic data and the original OD data, the paper demarcates the relevant parameters of the traffic distribution model. After the test of the traffic distribution model by calculating, the conclusion manifests that the model is feasible.