Study Of The Passenger Flow Distribution Prediction Based On URT Network Operation

With the gradual formation of urban rail transit network in some large cities, the operation management will also take a gradual transition to a new stage of network-based operation. The passenger flow is taken as the basis of the railway operation organization and its size and distribution decides the operation organization scheme of whole system. After the formation of the traffic network, the passenger flow distribution of one-way operation will show new characteristics with the increase of the rail lines and bring the corresponding changes of the net passenger flow distribution accordingly. Especially under the conditions of the implementation of one-ticket transfer, the passenger's trip route in the network will take on more obvious diversity because of the different transfer choices. Meanwhile the whole network passenger flow distribution will also change correspondingly with the new line access and abnormal operation condition.Therefore, in order to make diagram reasonably and improve the operation quality, this paper provides useful information about the time-space distribution characteristic by studying the passenger flow distribution under network operation.First of all, this paper analyses the mass transit systems in typical major cities such as Tokyo and Seoul and the passenger flow situation of the typical rail lines, educes the general trend of the passenger flow growth in the urban mass transit with a long history. Then, it analyses the reasons for the changes of the flow distribution, focuses on the time-space distribution characteristics and change rules of the network passenger flow.Meanwhile, learning from the urban road network theory, the paper establishes the multi-route choice probability method, in order to figures out every valid route's passenger assignment proportion between the OD. It gives the method of calculating the passenger flow in stations, section, line and network on the basic passenger flow data memorized by one-ticket transfer fare clear system and also sets up index system of urban rail network passenger flow. In the finality, according to the current passenger flow statistic, the paper analyses the passenger flow time-space distribution and undulation rules of the urban mass transit in Shanghai, proves the validity of the distribution model with the proportion of passenger flow shared by different valid routes of OD calculated by the NetPIAS, and studies the proportion distributed on the section and line.