Development And Application Of The System Theory Flood Forecasting Model Which Could Be Applied In Semiaridy And Semi-Humid Basin

In the process of the watershed hydrology model developing, moist area makes more works in the south region, the calculating method of the hydrology model in this area is also relatively mature. But the works in semiarid and semi-humid area makes less than the south area. Either in the domestic or on abroad, there still have some problems about the hydrology model when it is applied in the semiarid and semi-humid area. Therefore, the studying on the hydrology simulation of semiarid and semi-humid area is very important.At the beginning, the article give us the basic principle of ShuangChao Model which was suitable for the semiarid and semi-humid region, and then, by using contrast and classifying method we generally analyze the structures, parameters and shortages of ShuangChao Model. As a result of analyzing, we clearly know the shortcomings and the Excellencies of ShuangChao Model. At the same time, the text also simply introduces the XinAnJiang Model which is familiar with us. On top of the depiction about XinAnJiang Model, we totally reach the causes of the success of XinAnJiang Model in moist area according to the system theory.When finished the studying of two hydrology model, we began to reach the hydrology characteristics of the semi-dry and semi-humid region. Then, we set up a new hydrology model-SAH model based on the system modeling method. Also, the chapter detailed explains every component of the SAH model' s structure and each characteristic.For the validity checking of the SAH model, we apply the three hydrology model (including SAH model, XinAnJiang Model and ShuangChao Model) to Wenyuhe of ShanXi basin. The result of simulation for 14 rain runoffs tells us that SAH model is better than the other models and the structure of SAH model is feasible and no system warp, and the parameter of SAH model is consistent with the system modeling theory.It is very important to the hydrology model that setting up rational parameter. In the last chapter of the article, we reach the correlativity of two parameters and the sensibility of each parameter by analyzing the parameter result of the simulation to actual drain basin. The conclusion is that the parameters have certain relativity between a layer parameter and a layer parameter, but as a whole, it is relatively independent to parameters between a layer parameters and another layer parameters, the correlativity of model parameters mainly exists in the layer parameters inner; in 8 parameters of SAH model, there are 3 parameters with low sensitive, 4 parameters with medium sensitive, 1 parameter with high sensitive parameter. The structure of sensitive degree of model parameter makes the model have fairly good stability.From the contrast by applying the ShuangChao Model, XinAnJiang Model and SAH model in actual drainage basin, the theory analyzing to the rationality of model structure, the result of the sensibility of model parameters, and the result of the correlativity of model parameters, we could get two conclusions, one is that the structure of SAH model conform to the basically hydrology rule of the semiarid and semi-humid region, another is that the principle and the mathematics which the model building-up according to are consistent with the request of system theory.