Study On Flood Forecasting System Of Shifosi Reservior On Liaohe River

Shifosi Reservoir , the only control project on the main stream of Liaohe River, is a detention reservoir. Its main task is to prevent the flood from the middle and lower reaches of Liao River. The operation scheduling of the system is relatively simple, while the flood forecasting is more complicated.With the practical work , the nature and the rainstorm characteristics of the drainage basin controlled by this reservoir have been deeply researched. So a new hydrological regime automatic forecasting system for reservoir is designed and developed, which is based on telemetry, communication and computer technology. Meanwhile, the rationality demonstration about the distributing of telemetry rainfall stations is gained, with the methods of blur clustering analysis and correlation analysis.On the base of study, analysis and comparison between Xin-anjiang model and vertical mixture runoff discharge model, this paper chooses the latter one to simulate according to the runoff quality of semiarid and semi-humid area. Besides, the drainage area is divided into six sub-basins. Through the analysis on historical floods, the model parameter of the six sub-basins are defined individually and proved to be satisfied after the model test. The application of vertical mixture runoff discharge model on Shifosi Reservoir-control basin not only validates the applicability of this model in northeast area, but also resolves many practical problems.This paper shows the study of robust analysis on flood forecasting system software data. With regard to the statistical characteristic of reservoir flood system error sorts, this system introduces unascertained filtering method, and analyses possible variety range of random error distribution for polluted neighborhood. Combining the extreme value function and corresponding characteristic function, general error characteristics can be depicted and the relevant estimation theory can be established.In addition, the real-time correction of flood forecast results are introduced in this paper. Make a real-time correction on Shifosi flood forecasting results using the associative memory comprehensive correction mode, which is based on real-time input data and historic data. Finally, this paper also includes the study of the general-utility of forecasting system software.