Theory & Application Of Design Waves And Corresponding Extreme Loads For Port And Coastal Engineering

The annual typhoon occurring rate and typhoon intensity that influences China coasts are increasing in recent decades, which have caused more and more serious losses. At the same time, the construction scale of coastal, offshore and marine engineering is enlarging remarkably, so typhoon-induced engineering accidents occur frequently.In China, P-Ⅲcurve is always used to calculate design flood, wave and wind with some return period in coastal, offshore and hydraulic engineering designing. When the data series is limited, it will lead to obvious error. Many studies show that it is difficult to use an uniform probability model to describe long-term characteristics of waves in different sea areas.Aiming at the change of typhoon characteristics and the development actuality of coastal and marine engineering, it is a very important problem to find a reasonable and scientific probability model to reflect long-term statistic rules of meteo-oceanic factors, which is satisfactory for all kinds of data series in different sea areas.Based on the modification of"Code of Hydrology for Sea Harbour JTJ213-98", this paper carried out an important research—The Probability Prediction Theory and Calculation Method for Design Waves in Sea Areas Influenced by Typhoon, which was assigned by China Communication First Design Institute of Navigation Engineering (FDINE), Tianjin. Different probability models (Pearson-III, Gumbel and Poisson-gumbel) of design wave and corresponding calculation methods are discussed and compared in the paper. At last, the advantages of the new model are concluded as a beneficial supplement for the definition of design wave of port, coastal and ocean engineering.What's more, in this paper, the risk analysis method based on theory of Bayesian, Global Uncertainty Analysis (GUA) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is used in structural stability and risk assessment of Modern Art Center of Qingdao. It offers a scientific reference for designing and decision-making of important engineering along Qingdao coasts.