Research On The Disaster Carrying Capability Of Urban Complex System

The urban is getting more and more central and important to international society disaster defense and reduction as a huge disaster bearing body. The diversity of frequent urban disaster as well as the severity of lost and damage have threatened to the development of urban economic society. The integrative capability of disaster forecast, defense, salvation and resilience directly reflect on the base and capability of urban sustainable development.The existent research on the disaster carrying capability of disaster bearing bodies focused on the materials such as buildings and estimated the capability through analyzing intensity of disaster inducing factors while this paper discusses it by taking urban as a huge disaster bearing body with systems angle of view. And the difference is that the capability is made up of characteristic, structure and operating but not the disaster inducing factors.The paper models the estimation of complex system disaster relative carrying capability based on the integrative disaster risk analysis and gray systems theory and also leading by the rudder of sustainable development. The estimating index of the capability consist three aspects: disaster defense, disaster salvation and resilience and at the same time distinguish intentionally the characteristic between the human beings and economic sub-systems for trying to find out the coupling relationship among the capability of disaster defense, disaster salvation and resilience and interactional relationship between human beings and the economic subsystem.Sustainable development is the coordination development inside and outside of systems. This paper analyzes the coordination of the basal economic factors in the disaster relative carrying capability model using the gray systems theory and takes Dalian as an example to get the result that the coordination between economic development and devotion of disaster defense and reduction was not well so it is suggested that Dalian should expedite construction for disaster defense and reduction to reduction the economic lost.This paper suggests that the urban disaster carrying capability consists of stiffness, resilience and developing capacity, and finds out the causality which formed a mode of short and long time feedback coexistence from the factors based on system dynamics and also many feedback loops all centralizing the urban infrastructure construction to supervise the disaster reduction management.Urban disaster reduction management is a complex systems engineering take the system, structure and operation as a combo. It is a difficult work to coordinate defends before disaster,...