Research On The Passenger Volume Forecasting Of XiaMen-ShenZhen Intercity Rail Transit

With the sustainable and rapid development of china economy, the process of urbanization and metropolitan allies is accelerated. The coastal areas of FuJian and GuangDong province are in the phase of economic boom, and some economic allies lie in the areas such as FuZhou economic ally, XiaMen-ZhangZhou economic ally, ShanTou economic ally, ShenZhen-DongGuang-GuangZhou economic ally. There are lots of passenger flows both in internal and external areas, including business flow, visiting relatives flow, tourist flow and so on. As far as traffic corridor's concerned, there are several corridors as follows: national road, speedway, air-ferry and waterage. For road transport playing great role in passenger transport, this text analyses the function of road transport. From the long run, the passenger flow would increase rapidly, the capacity of road transport could not adapt to the traffic rising even by investing and building new roads. Meanwhile, the high energy consumption and high cost problems become more and more concerned, so how to solve the future traffic supply-demand contradiction efficiently has been a social and economic problem of great significance.As a large capacity, fast velocity and energy saving transportation way, railway transport has been put into practice in world wide. It could raise the traffic supply level significantly, ease up the supply-demand contradiction and promote the economic development. Based on this, this thesis analyses the passenger flow of Xiamen-Shenzhen rail transit. First, the thesis illustrates the main models of passenger flow forecasting about rail transit and the development of forecasting model, relative zones' social and economic situations of Xiamen-Shenzhen rail transit are introduced. The transportation characters, flow formation principles, the structure and function of Xiamen-Shenzhen transportation channel are demonstrated...