Risk Analysis Of Floating Tunnel

The feasibility study is one of the most important stages in the engineering project earlier period, the reasons of its success or failure maybe the oversight of the plan or the not fully consideration. However, the major reason is the appearance of the unforeseen risks. Through the contrast of the plan and the analysis of the key aspects, we can find the latent risk in the engineering project, and the direction for the next step of project implementation.This article first introduces the floating tunnel's basic concept, through comparing with the other cross sea channels technologies, we can determine its main superiority. Then it carries on the economic analysis and the appraisal using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and determine the scope project expense maybe accepted. Next, in the system elaboration risk analysis foundation, and has referred to the risk analysis' main method, unifies the floating tunnel the earlier period to plan the characteristic and the whole construction process, we established the risk management appraisal target system of the floating tunnel. And then calculates the each main risk factor's weights by the AHP method, finding the answering measure of the risk management through the sort. Finally, this introduces the artificial nerve network's main characteristic and it's design process. In the foundation of the simple BP network's establishment and the risk factors' weights, the paper carries on the network training to the floating tunnel risk factor, and using the network which has trained fully to forecast the floating tunnel overall risk value.The article conducts a deep research to the floating tunnel feasibility and the riskmanagement, the goal of it is to discover the risk factors in the floating tunnel, and solve the quantitative research question in the project through several kinds of risk analysis tools, it can provides the policy-making basis for the administrator.