The Mechanism Study And Forecasting Of Leakage The Small Town Water Pipe Network

The water pipe network leakage is universal existence phenomenon for the water supply profession. It should be treats the symptoms and the causes for the water pipe network leakage question, and take effects a permanent cure as the goal. But want fundamentally to solve the leakage problem, we should carries on the analysis from the leakage reason and the leakage mechanism aspect, thus provides the basis for the choice leakage control method, and takes the pointed measure.The traditional leakage detection method has the passive leak detection method, the sound listens to the leak detection method, the region to install the table method, the region leak detection method and so on, along with the technical development, these leakage detection instruments accuracies also unceasingly is enhancing, but them all have the question that the leakage detection lag the leakage. Because the water pipe network is buries in the underground, passes through the long-term use to be able to have the leakage even cartridge igniter inevitably in certain lengths of pipe, however these breakdowns not easily was discovered generally in the short-term, this has created the massive water resources waste. Therefore, if we can promptly diagnose the pipe network leakage point and decides on the concrete position firmly, it has the vital economical significance and the social significance.This article to gives the water pipe network leakage history data through a series of mathematics method to carry on the analysis, and finally establishes for the water pipe network leakage frequency model as well as for the water pipe network leakage probabilistic model, promulgates the leakage history data concealment the general rule, not only may judge delivers the future change tendency which the water pipe network leaks, moreover may promptly determine the pipe network possible leakage position, like this, on the one hand for the leakage control, the pipe network maintenance provides the scientific basis, on the other hand reduced for the water pipe network leakage rate, saved the massive water resources.The material data of small town water supply system is insufficiently, therefore collects the material data of the city plot pipe network leakage material to simulate the small town pipe network condition, and through the leakage situation pipe network material statistical analysis of this city, thus obtains the water pipe network leakage frequency forecast model, as well as uses the gray connection decides the value combination forecast and many non-linearity return decide two kind of different types...