To Analyze Chinese Townspeople's Housing Affordability By Grey Correlative Degree

At the beginning of 1990's, with our country's socialistic market economy established and the housing system in town having been reformed, the housing construction in 1996 was listed as a new economic increasing point. Inl998, the State Council issued the notice "Deepening the reform of housing system in town further and quickening the housing construction", which said canceling the substantial distribution of housing from July 1st, 1998, this represented the housing consumption will be individual to purchase the house. On August 2003, the State Council issued the notice "To promote the real estate market in healthy and durative development", which regarded the real estate industry as one of pillar industry for it's pulling our nation economy.Nowadays, not only buying houses has becoming a important subject for ordinary townspeople to talk about daily, but also the housing industry has becoming a new hot spot for China townspeople's consumption. In the nearest several years townspeople's disposable incomes have kept rising, at the same time house prices have also kept rising acutely. Under this circumstance, do townspeople have pressure on housing affordability or how much relative pressure it is? It is the question that this paper will be studied.This paper chiefly adopts the qualitative analysis combined with the quantitative analysis. HAI theory is taken to judge the housing affordability of townspeople with HPI used as a supplementary theory. Based on Gray systems theory, quantitative analysis and authentic proof researches have been carried on HAI's change of the whole nation and Shanghai, after that the model is tested and forecasted.By calculating there is some pressure for Chinese townspeople on housing, while Shanghai's townspeople have much pressure correspondingly. Particularly by the quintile income of Shanghai' s townspeople house prices transcend housing affordability of more than 60% townspeople, 40% low income of families have fairly big burden.By comparing the calculated results of HPI and HAI which surpass housing affordability, the two results are consistent very well and pass correlative inspection of spssl3.0, and it's correlation coefficient is 0.941.To analyze Chinese and Shanghai's townspeople's HAI by grey correlative degree, we find urbanization rate, family disposable income and family savings rate are major influencing factors for the former, while family savings rate, family disposable income and urbanization rate are major influencing factors for the latter. By contrast with the results ofanalysis, we find that every factor has different influence level to different district and the influencing sequence is different too. By testing the model, the model precision is good and can be used for forecast. Thorough calculation and analysis combined with facts, HAI will keep rising steadily in the coming several years.