Fundamental Research On The Evaluation Method Of Systematic Risk Of Interbasin Water Transfer Project

The South-North Water Transfer Project(SNWTP) is a great water transfer project with strategic significance of our country. The project's objective is to solve the problem from uneven distribution of water resource in our country in space and time aspect,which becomes an obstruct of economic development of northern China. With the development of interbasin water transfer projects,issues from all kinds of projects,such as security and environment,are on the agenda. The risk caused by various kinds of uncertain factors is being paid more and more attention, and project risk analysis and risk management are becoming new technology and are applyed to projects gradually.On the background of middle route of SNWTP ,the research studys the key and hot problems in engineering risk analysis and risk decision in engineering aspect,and establishs the risk assessment system of interbasin water transfer project under three main kinds of disasters.The main contents of the research are as follows:1. By research and survey,a large amount of material about risk analysis are collected to show the progress on the studies of engineering risk analysis decision.2. As the basis of risk analysis,the theory of FMEA is introduced to explain factors arising engineering risk in the interbasin water transfer project and disscuss the possible measures.3. Fuzzy Probability Calculation Method of Accidents is introduced to risk assessment ofinterbasin water transfer project.4. Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is applied in risk assessment of interbasin water transfer project and is a key tool for calculating calamity consequenceThis method can help to show the relative importance of accident factors and reduce assessment mistakes from subject decisions.5. Combining failure probability with calamity consequence of interbasin water transfer project ,the risk assessment system of water transfer project has been proposed.6. Rough set theory can select potential and valuable messages from messy data.Withoutandy recorrect messages.these features make the theory into the risk assessment ofinterbasin water transfer project.