Study On The Forecast And Control Of Road Traffic Accidents

Recently, the problems of traffic safety are more and more serious. It is every necessary to study road accidents on the condition that traffic accidents are on the rise in china, while they are decreasing in developed countries and some other developing ones. According to the current situation of traffic safety and study, The subject of study——study on the forecast and control of road traffic accidents is established. In this paper the method theory and thinking way of traffic safety science in the view of philosophy are expounded. Then the causes of traffic accidents from the respects such as human factor, vehicle factor, road factor, environment factor and so on is analyzed, and the definition of traffic accidents is extended and some features on it are pointed out. According to the attributes of traffic accidents, a catastrophe model of traffic accidents causes is developed via the fruit of nonlinear science on the basis of analyzing the traditional cause and effect models;The author predicts successfully the amount of traffic accidents by the artificial neural network (ANN), the risk situation of road by the theory of Stochastis Processes according to the stochastis features on road accidents and the direct economy loss by the Grey theory according to the grey features on it;The article expands the routine of traditional study and thinks that it is necessary to forecast the harmful consequences traffic accidents cause. The author also thinks of the indefinite nature of loss and deduces the calculation formula via the essence of Probability theory skillfully;According to the attributes of risk decision, a dynamic risk decision forecast model of traffic accidents management is built through Markov theory on the basis of analyzing the traditional means;At last, from the respects of safety system engineering, some measures that prevent and control traffic accidents to enhance the safety function of traffic system are put forward on the basis of analyzing the causes of the high accident rate. The paper considers system theory, information theory and cybernetics as pole star. Some natural laws behind the considerable statistics of traffic accidents are found by the way of modern math. Traffic accidents are forecasted effectively from different aspects by different means, as a result, the men make decisions can estimate comprehensively the condition of the system from different sides in the future and take effective measures to control traffic accidents and reduce the degree of the property loss and casualty to the nadir or the range people can accept. Thus, the backward situation of preventing and controlling accidents is changed effectively, and real safety for traffic system is realized.