The Research Of Distribution Of Forecast Water In Drainage Basin Or Application

The forecasting programme for the large reservoirs in China at the moment has been completed, with a higher accuracy of historical floods check. However, the check for floods in these years is lower in precision. Those short-term floods, with a bigger error in forecast value, and the historical ones are called non-standardized flood. It is the non-standardized flood that is a real headache to the dispatchers on the forecast and control of the large reservoirs. Because the calculation precision is not easy to control, and this will result in a bigger flood-forecasting error, and higher flood-dispatching difficulty. What's worse, it may even affect the safety of the reservoirs.There are several reasons for the causes of non-standardized flood: the differences on the causes and intensity of rainfall, on the requirements of putting a cushion, and the continuous drought. For the hydrologic forecasting model on concept that is with a complex structure and many parameters, there is not an effective way to solve the real-time correcting problems. As the non-linear technology such as Fuzzy Sets Theory, Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms being used widely and deeply in all walks of life, it provides new ways and possibilities to solve all these problems.According to the problems existing in the modern prediction, combing with the utility of the projects, using nowadays advanced classifying prediction method to take out the non-standardized floods and classify the non-standardized floods using the artificial nerve network .then according to the characters of the floods and levels of the factors, choosing different patterns of predictions and optimize the predicted factors to predict the flood. Dispatching the folds using relevant rules to raise the accuracy of the prediction of the reservoir in order to raise the level of the dispatching and increase the promoting benefits and social benefits of the reservoir.This study provides new method for predicting real-time flood, and fine concrete examples. It provides not only the important theoretical significance and also the greater social and economic values. The construction of the system enable the prediction of the reservoir and the optimizing rules more scientific and at the same time, using all kinds of advanced technical methods and scientific designing idea to promise the utility and advantage of the research with the characters of the spreading and openness. The study has tested and used a serial of the water resources according to the River Qing in the Liao Ning Province and got a very satisfied results.