The Theory And Method Study Of Metropolitan Rail Transit Passenger Forecast

Rail transit is now being accepted by more and more people because of its many virtues such as high capacity, fast speed, and energy-saving and free of waste. As the core support of the rail transit planning, operation and management, passenger forecast should be accurately enough done to fulfill the qualification request of the project, but also should be feasible under the condition of the complex restrictions. The main subject of the paper is to find a proper way for the passenger forecast of the rail transit planning of the metropolitan area. Firstly, the employment of different passenger forecast methods and the central content of the paper is given. Secondly, the main idea of the Four Phase Passenger Forecast Method is presented which is of help to illustrate the subsequent part. Thirdly, the theory about transportation corridor is introduced. The fourth part introduces the aggregate method with the example of Logit model and the metropolitan rail transit passenger forecast method based on utility matrix are given. The one but last part cites the stated preference survey and revealed preference survey, then passenger forecast method based RP and SP and transportation corridor theory is illustrated. The last part concludes the paper and gives suggestions of subsequent study.