Passenger Flow Prediction Method Of Urban Rail Transit Based On Multi-level Rail Network Integration In Metropolitan Area

With the rapid development of economy and urbanization,China has gradually formed a new urbanization pattern of big cities with metropolitan areas as the main body.Multi-level rail transit plays a pivotal role in the comprehensive transportation system of metropolitan areas because of its own advantages.Therefore,accelerating the construction of a multi-level and three-dimensional rail transit system in metropolitan areas is of great significance to promote China’s economic construction and urbanization development.The passenger flow demand analysis and prediction is the basis of traffic planning,which can accurately analyze the development trend of traffic,so as to better meet people’s travel needs.Therefore,passenger flow prediction based on multi-level rail transit is an important research content for the development of "metropolitan circle on orbit".This paper depends on the national natural science fund surface project(52072044),combined with the characteristics of the city circle area rail passenger flow forecast,to city circle multi-level rail transit network integration as the goal,mainly for traffic forecast four stage model in the third stage-travel mode improvement,put forward the improvement of four stage model,realize the city circle area rail transit passenger flow forecast,this paper mainly focus on the following aspects:First of all,this paper summarizes the basic theories of the composition and technical characteristics of urban rail transit,the integration mode of multi-level urban rail transit network and the selection behavior of metropolitan areas.Then,on the basis of summarizing the common methods of traditional rail traffic prediction,analyzes the traditional prediction method of the prediction of multi-level urban rail transit traffic,and put forward the urban circle of orbit passenger prediction method and model,including the traffic district division,traffic generation,traffic distribution,traffic,traffic distribution and reliability and sensitivity analysis of six steps.Among them,the way division as the main research part of this paper,it is divided into two levels,the first level is the metropolitan circle multi-mode integrated OD is divided into two categories of highway traffic and rail transit,the second level is divided into regional railway,sd railway,high-speed railway,intercity railway and urban rail transit express five levels,establish related model and inspection and comparative analysis.Finally,the prediction results of urban rail transit of the method is confirmed.The research results show that: first of all,the total number of trips in the metropolitan area of Xi’an(excluding inter city exchanges in the central city of Xi’an)will be 4.71 million person times/day in 2028,and 5.53 million person times/day in the metropolitan area in 2035.Second,in urban travel,travelers prefer urban rail transit express lines and urban railways more.Third,in 2028 and 2035,the passenger volume of rail transit in the metropolitan area of Xi’an will be 648700 person times/day and 1354200 person times/day,respectively.In the future,the rail network in Xi’an will basically cover the main passenger flow distribution points in the planned area.The passenger flow from Xi’an to surrounding cities or groups will be greater than that from surrounding cities or groups,and the peak passenger flow will be more concentrated near Xi’an,Its direction is basically in line with the current situation of the region and the main passenger flow channels in the future.