The Grey Risk Assessment Of Water Area And Its Application To The Port Of Guangzhou

Within the marine traffic system composed of human being, ship and environment, there exists close relations and interactions among the system's three elements. Accidents at sea result from their interactions of the elements. As to the accidents at a certain water area, maritime departments possess the detailed statistical data, including accident levels, casualties, direct economic loss and etc. In this paper, based on statistical analysis and research of the data of traffic accidents from the area under VTS's jurisdiction in Guangzhou port, the risk degree of water area is proposed using gray assessment method.By use of statistics, analyses of geographical and time's distribution of traffic accidents are carried out in the form of different courses, time, and type of accidents. Then, the security supervisor can know the real safety conditions from the different aspects, so as to ease the scientific decisions and make different regulations directed to particular water area and time span. With gray system theory, by taking the number of accidents, conversed accidents, the hurled, casualty and direct economic loss as the index of assessment, gray clustering assessment model is established of the degree of water area risk, and the assessment of that of Port of Guangzhou is carried out. It results in that the VTS does decrease the degree of the water area risk.The method in this article are based on the detailed data of traffic accidents from maritime departments, reflects the interactions among three elements of the marine traffic system, and are charactered by convenient computing and wide applicability. Furthermore, to maritime departments, it is of actual significance to the assessment of their water area.