On Simulation Of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics

On the basis of domestic and international studies on water resourcecarrying capacity, this paper discusses the basic theories and methods ofsystem dynamics model, and aiming at supply and demand characteristicsof water resources in Guizhou Province, establishes a system dynamicsmodel with regional characteristics. The research contents are as follows: Firstly, on the basis of concepts of water resources and waterresource carrying capacity, this paper discusses the influencing factors ofwater resource carrying capacity and quantitative means of waterresources, and then combined with basic theories, analyses the basicconstruct of system dynamics model and establishes a complete systemdynamics model of the research area (Guizhou Province), on which asimulation of water resource carrying capacity is carried out in threeprojects, and finally puts forward some advice on improving waterresource exploitation. Through the study on water resource carrying capacity in GuizhouProvince, this paper draws some main conclusions as follows: In the project of economic development type, on the presuppositionthat total industrial production of Guiyang City from the year 2003 to theyear 2020 will be greatly increased, this paper estimates that from theyear 2010 water supply will not be equal to water demand, and that in theyear 2020 water supply will hardly meet water demand. So the inequalityof water resource supply and demand will be a big resistance of socialand economic developments in more than ten years. In the project of water-saving type, on the presupposition that totalindustrial production of Guiyang City from the year 2003 to the year2020 will be slightly increased, this paper estimates that from the year2015 water supply will not be equal to water demand. Although thisproject can shorten the inequality of water supply and demand to a certaindegree, it can't solve the problem completely. From the project of harmony type, this paper thinks that thepercentage of water resource utilization should be increased to 26% in theyear 2020, which can make water supply and demand in balance.