Research On Electric Power System Short-term Load Forecasting Model

This paper concerns with model of electric power system short-term load forecasting and the conditions of combination forecasting method applying in electric power system short-term load forecasting.During the research of this project,several forecasting model have been developed,such as BP&SA,GA&SA,FC,combination forecasting and many ordinary methods. A software,STLF-HFUT,also have been developed.It's essential that any forecasting,used as part of combination forecasting,must cointegrate with the outcome. Otherwise,the precision of the combination forecasting model is unpredictable. It also can be applied in the short-tern load forecasting of electric power system.In this paper,the algorithms of applying the conditions in electric power system short-term load forecasting are introduced. It also gives the algorithms of Unit Root Test and Cointegration Test,which are necessary to the test of the conditions. In order to test this hypothesis,an example is made in the end of this paper. According to the example,if the parts of combination forecasting model isn't cointegrated with the outcome,the result of combination forecasting is unsatisfied. While,the parts of combination forecasting model have the relationship of cointegration,the result of combination forecasting is sound. This condition was necessary to the combination forecasting,but it is not the only condition that combination forecasting must fulfill. The value of these conditions is giving us a clue in constructing the combination forecasting model.