Research On Power Load Forecasting Based On Combination Forecasting Method

The development of economy has promoted the rapid development of the improvement of national life and the first,second and tertiary industry.And the demand of electricity consumption per capita in our country is increasing day by day.In order to alleviate the surging demand for electricity consumption,it is necessary to expand the overall scale of China's power system.So many new power generation projects in China should be developed,greatly promote and ensure the steady development of China's economy.With the increase of electricity demand and power load constraints,the climatic conditions,electricity prices,regional economic development situation have become the associated influencing factors.Therefore,on the basis of detailed analysis of the factors affecting the main body of power load,we should analyze the law of power load change of power supply in the region,so as to predict and evaluate the power supply in the regional range by constructing the power load forecasting model.The economic development has promoted the rapid development of the first,second and third industries,and the rapid improvement of national life.The demand for electricity consumption per capita in China is growing.In order to alleviate the surge in electricity demand,it is necessary to expand the overall scale of China's power system.Therefore,many new power generation projects in China have emerged,which greatly promote and guarantee the steady development of China's economy.With the increase in electricity demand and power load constraints,climate conditions,electricity prices,and regional economic development have become related factors.Therefore,on the basis of detailed analysis of the main factors affecting the power load,it is necessary to analyze the variation law of the power load of the power supply in the area.Therefore,through the construction of the electric load forecasting model,scientific prediction and evaluation of the power supply within the region is carried out.This paper mainly selects Xingtai Power Supply Network as the research object,and conducts detailed research and analysis on the relevant information of Xingtai Power Grid.The traditional classical prediction model or single model for power load prediction is difficult to meet the accuracy.This paper mainly chooses linear regression forecasting method,polynomial forecasting method,grey forecasting method and combined forecasting method as the main methods of forecasting,and then analyzes the situation of power grid in Xingtai area,and studies each forecast based on actual application of themodel.This paper mainly analyzes several power forecasting models that are widely used at present.It not only expounds the advantages of each forecasting model,but also points out the limitations of each model.Based on the concept of combined forecasting model,the concept of predicting the model to solve the problem is proposed.Taking the electricity consumption data of Xingtai area as an example,the prediction effect of the joint combination forecasting model is analyzed and verified.By comparing and analyzing the final prediction results obtained by each prediction model,it can be seen that the joint combination prediction model is superior than another other models.The prediction effect obtained by the joint combination prediction model is the most accurate,and therefore,this also largely indicates that it can be applied to practice.At the end of the article,the joint portfolio prediction model was extended to other regions,and its feasibility was verified by analyzing the prediction results.The information about the joint multi-combination prediction model in this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)The advantage that the combined forecasting model does not exist in other models is that it combines all the advantages of all predictive models,and the accuracy of the prediction results is greatly improved.(2)The joint combination prediction method is based on the combined prediction model,and the data is combined by prediction prediction theory.Combine the advantages of each predictive model and test the data in real-world applications.This paper examines the applicability of combining multiple composite key models with specific regional applications.The use of multi-combination joint model in Shijiazhuang,Baoding and Handan areas was selected and analyzed in detail.The analysis results show that the multi-combination joint model can be applied and make good prediction inHandan and Baoding area.However,the situation in Shijiazhuang is different,and the multi-combination joint model is less feasible in Shijiazhuang,which indicates that the applicability of the multi-combination joint model is not unconditional and has certain limitations.From a global perspective,the main factors affecting load forecasting are political factors,power supply capacity,and electricity price.Therefore,in the process of predicting power load,it is necessary to fully consider the common influence of various factors,and strive to make the predicted results more accurate.