Risk Assessment On Liquified Petroleum Gas Terminal

This thesis is based on the theory of the unexpected release of energy in Safety System Engineering and applies the relevant principle in Risk Assessment. Three kinds of methods , such as Dow Fire & Explosion index , ICI/Mond index , grey clustering procedure and three mathematical models , such as BLEVE accidental model , VCE accidental model , the model of leakage & diffusion of posionous gases are applied to the risk asssessment of LPG terminal.The cargo stored and transported at LPG terminal have the potential danger of Fire & Explosion and the danger of leakage & diffusion of poison . Once an accident happened there , the property ang people would be hurted badly . The reasons of accident are usually overlapping . In this thesis , the synthetic risk assessment is divided into three parts , such as the assessment of occurability of the accident, the assessment of inherent danger and the assessment of present danger .The assessment of occurability of the accident is focused on the nature of the cargo and is assessed through quantitative analysis .The assessment of inherent danger include the danger of Fire & Explosion and the the danger of the leakage & diffusion of poison and the synthetic assessment of both of them . The assessment of the danger of Fire & Explosion include the assessment of economic loss , the assessment of the harmness of BLEVE accident and the assessment of the harmness of VCE accident . The assessment of the danger of leakage & diffusion of poison include the assessment of poisonous load and the forecast of the distance of the leakage & diffusion of poison .Based on all the assessments above , the ICI/Mond index is applied to the preliminarily synthetic risk assessment of LPG terminal whose result can make the managerial personnel see the consquence ofthe accidents of diftent scale and the dangerous grade visualizedly .The risk assessment of the present danger is focused on the safety supervision . Based on the analysis of the fault tree of the accident at LPG terminal, the level of the safety manage of LPG terminal is assessed through grey clustering procedure and the grade is presented , which make the managerial personnel see the level of the safety manage of this terminal visualizedly .Based on the preliminarily synthetic risk assessment, the managerial personnel can take some safety managerial measures and put the safety compensation coefficient to the result of the result of preliminarily synthetic risk assessment to finish the ultimately synthetic assessment of LPG terminal and the procedure of the assessment canbe circulating.To make the procedure and methods of the risk assessment be used maor conveniently , the author use the software of Visual Basic develop the software of The " Risk Assessment System of the Storage and Transportation of LPG Terminal " , "RASSTLPGT" .