Study On Water Source Shortage Risk In Eastern Shandong Area

With the rapid development of economy and society, water question has restricted economic development in Eastern Shandong, contradictory of water resource supply and demand intensified day by day. And it presents increasingly serious situation along with the climatic environment change and the economical scale expansion. Water resource shortage risk analysis and study as well as water resource shortage treatment and risk regulation measure which are formulated according to risk analysis and study are beneficial to social economy development.In this article, we took Eastern Shandong as an example, carried on water resource gain and loss analysis and water resource shortage risk research, discussed water resource shortage synthesis regulation mechanism, and provided advantageous help to alleviate water resource shortage in Eastern Shandong. The main contents include:(1) Comprehensive survey physical geography, socio-economy, development and utilization of water resource and so on in Eastern Shandong. Lay the foundation of water resource gain and loss analysis and shortage risk study in this area.(2) Establish water resource gain and loss analysis model in Eastern Shandong, following the combination of short and long term, watershed and region, comprehensive utilization and real-time protection principles, to calculate regional water shortage and predict the gain and loss status of water resource, then further understand water resource situation in Eastern Shandong. These are the premise of successor water resource shortage risk study work in Eastern Shandong.(3) Following some certain principles select risk rate, vulnerability, return period, recoverability and risk degree as water resource shortage risk assessment indicators, carry on grading to these indicators,and establish Eastern Shandong area water resource shortage risk assessment indicators system. According to water resource demand prediction of Eastern Shandong area in 2015, based on long-term inflow data to get assessment indicators value of water resource shortage risk. (4) Using MATLAB software, entropy method was adopted to calculate each assessment indicators weight of water resource shortage in Eastern Shandong. Establish Eastern Shandong water resource shortage risk fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, take MATLAB as calculation tool to carry on water resource shortage risk synthetic assessment, then we get water resource shortage risk synthetic assessment value and risk level of each planning zone in Eastern Shandong.(5) Take similarity, region integrity and leading factor as principles, using MAPGIS software, and carry on regionalization to water resources short risk in Eastern Shandong, obtain each indictor regionalization maps and the synthesis regionalization map. These maps express Eastern Shandong water resource shortage risk situation intuitively.(6) According to water resource gain and loss analysis result, water resource shortage risk assessment index value and synthetic evaluation value as well as the corresponding regionalization maps in Eastern Shandong, we can obtain the overall water resources system situation in Eastern Shandong. According to the above, we have discussed water resource shortage treatment and risk regulation measure, developed water resource sustainable utilization countermeasure, proposed the water resource shortage risk regulation strategy, established water resource security system in Eastern Shandong.