Research On The Risk Analysis Problem Of Flood Control And Water Resource Utilization

At present, flood danger and lack of water resource are the key restriction factors for the social and economic development of China. In order to improve the capacity of flood control and to reduce the flood risk, make a best use of the potential of the flood resources and to get the most benefits of the flood control and water supply, based on the analysis of the relevant research at home and aboard, the risk factors that were concerned in flood control and water resource utilization project were analyzed and some methods of flood control and the utilizing flood resources were systematically investigated. The following outcomes and conclusions have been obtained in this thesis after studying on the risk problem about flood forecast system, water supply system, river channel flood control, reservoir flood control and urban flood control respectively:(1) The risk and reliability indexes of raining forecast were given from different aspects. The advance LOSM method was applied to the risk analysis and evaluation of flood forecast model, and this method was the same with the medium-term and long-term hydrological forecasting.(2) Based on different principle of urban flood and water logging disaster and different city style, the calculation method of synthesis urban flood risk was proposed. After that, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established, and the method to calculate risk index was given.(3) The risk theory was applied to the management of water supply system with corresponding indexes proposed, and the risk evaluation index system was established. Take Gan Nan and Huang Bizhuang reservoirs as an example, the risk indexes of different cutting rate were worked out, and the specific measures were put forward to different years.(4) Analyzing the influence of superstandard flood to the river channel, the calculating models of hydrological risk, hydraulic risk and structure reliability were proposed, and the method of flood control capacity for river channel was given. After that, the risk level of flood control capacity for Haihe River was evaluated and the relation of flood control capacity and reliability was shown in the result.(5) By using the risk evaluation index system of reservoir flood control, the risk indexes of Huang Bizhuang reservoir raising the limit level were calculated. The results show that the limit flood water level in Huang Bizhuang reservoir could be raised to 116 meter from present 114 meter. As a result, the reservoir can increase 79.28 million cubic meters storage water which is about 17.08% of the design available storage. The increasing economic benefit is very distinct.