Analysis And Forecasting Of Passengers' Demand Structure In Regional Transport Corridor

Under the dual constraints of resources and environment in China, planning and constructing efficient regional transport corridor is the key technologies to solve the contradiction between regional transportation supply and demand. As the pilot work of planning and construction of regional transport corridor, analysis and forecast of the passengers'transport demand is of great significance on improving the planning theories and methods and reasonable allocating transport capacities of regional transport corridor.This paper combined qualitative analysis and quantitative forecast, discussed the characteristics and the forecast methods of passengers'transport demand within regional transport corridor. Firstly, this paper defined the concept of regional transport corridor and the structure of passengers'transport demand, then summarized the factors of the structure of passengers'transport demand. Secondly, this paper analyzed the structure of passengers'transport demand from hierarchical structure and mode-structure. In terms of hierarchical structure, this paper divided the hierarchy of passengers'transport demand, and discussed the hierarchical structure of passengers' transport demand based on passenger groups dividing, and then tentatively put forward the characteristics of hierarchical structure of passengers'transport demand within regional corridor. In terms of mode-structure, this paper summarized the competition and coordination mechanism among every transport mode, and discussed the formation mechanism of mode-structure of passengers'transport demand, then proposed the features of mode-structure of passengers'transport demand from the analysis of the evolution trend of every passenger transport mode. Thirdly, on the basis of improving MD model, this paper constructed a forecasting model of mode-structure of passengers'transport demand, proposed the foresting idea and process. Finally, this paper made the Shanghai-Nanjing corridor for example, analyzed the structure characteristics of passengers'transport demand, and predicted the structure of passengers'transport demand at year 2015 and 2020.