Typical Natural Disaster Risk Analysis And Assessment Of Coastal Ports

Urban infrastructures correlate with each other. Once parts of them are destroyed by natural disaster, the whole urban economic system cannot run normally. As one of the important infrastructures in the coastal city, port plays an important role in economic development of coastal city. But it's often attracted by the fog, typhoon or the other natural disasters. The development of port is badly affected. Many serious global environmental problems, for example, global warming and the sea level rise, further aggravate destructiveness of coastal port, and then seriously threaten the whole urban economy system. Therefore, constructing the risk emergency management as the core of risk prevention, completing disaster plan and ensuring the safe operation of the coastal port are already imperative.Founded by National Natural Science Foundation project "Coastal Cities Natural Disasters Emergency Plan Scenario Analysis" (NO.40730526), the present study started from natural disaster risk identification, analyzed the natural disaster which had influenced coastal ports, reviewed the theories and methods of risk analysis at home and abroad. Based on defining natural disaster risk and constructing the risk assessment framework, this research established the index system of natural disaster risk from the macro scale. According to the global international shipping center index, selected eight coastal ports as the research area, including Dalian Port, Tianjin Port, Qingdao Port, Shanghai Port, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, Xiamen Port, Shenzhen Port and Guangzhou Port, evaluated the natural disaster risk of coastal ports. From the micro scale, the study selected Yangshan deep water port as study area, based on historical disaster mathematical statistics method, established risk assessment model. The results provided the theoretical basis for the government policy-making and emergency management.Several main conclusions of this research are as follows:(1) Based on statistical materials, the typhoons landed in China are found slightly declined since 1950. From 1989 to 2009, the average number of deaths caused by marine disasters is decreased, but the average direct economic losses are increasing. The average loss is 12.5 billion RMB every year. Both the number of storm surge and the economic losses caused by storm surge are raised since 1950. (2) The hazard is different among eight coastal ports. It shows that the hazard of northern coast ports is low overall. The hazard of the middle and southern ports is high. The spatial difference of exposure is significant. The exposure of the coastal ports in the middle region is much higher than the other ports. While the exposure of the northern coast ports is the low. The exposure of Guangzhou Port is the lowest in the southern. The vulnerability of the eight coastal ports shows that:Shenzhen port and Tianjin port are the highest, the lowest is Guangzhou port, and the vulnerability of the others is medium. The value of the risk is largely different in space, it shows that: the ports in the middle region> the southern ports> the northern ports.(3) Qingdao Port, Shanghai Port and Ningbo-Zhoushan Port should protect themselves from the wind caused by typhoon. Xiamen Port and Shenzhen Port should pay attention to the typhoon wind and typhoon storm surge. Tianjin Port and Guangzhou Port should give attention to the typhoon storm surge, because that both of them are seriously affected by the storm surge. The exposure of container and goods is high in Tianjin, Shanghai, Qingdao, Xiamen, Shenzhen and Guangzhou Port. When natural disaster is coming, they must move the container and goods in time. The goods and the passengers highly exposed to the natural disaster in Dalian and Ningbo-Zhoushan Port. This must be concerned by related departments. At the same time, the disaster prevention facilities should be strengthened. In the mean time, disaster prevention facilities should also be strengthened. When maintaining and expanding ports scale, administration departments should increase the number of anchorages and lighthouses to help the ship's navigation according to relevant disaster prevention and mitigation requirements. Eventually the disaster prevention construction standards and emergency support capabilities can be improved.(4) Based on statistical materials about Yangshan deep water port from 1961 to 2008, the fog days are numerous in the 1970s. The winter (December to February) has more fog than the other season every year. The fog days in summer (June to August) are the least. Visibility of the fog is lower, the frequency is lower. Along with the increasing of the fog duration, the frequency decrease sharply.(5) As the visibility of the fog is lower, economic losses and risk value of different hazard bearing bodies rise gradually. The impact from the fog on the hazard bearing bodies shows that:the wharf> the road> tourist attraction> passenger depot. The influence on the hazard bearing bodies is connected with the visibility and the duration of the fog. The stage-damage curves of different hazard-affected bodys were established for the computation of the average annual losses. And the average annual loss caused by the fog is 55.54 million RMB. This data can be used as the basis of disaster cost-benefit analysis.